黑色商品日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily analysis of black commodities on August 26, 2025, covering steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It offers price trends, supply - demand information, and short - term market outlooks for each commodity [1][2]. - Overall, the report predicts that most commodities will show narrow - range consolidation or volatile trends in the short term due to various factors such as inventory changes, production adjustments, and export volume fluctuations [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3138 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (0.61%) with a decrease of 63,800 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. National building material inventories continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed down. In July, exports of bar - wire rods and billets increased significantly, alleviating domestic supply pressure. Short - term rebar futures are expected to move in a narrow range [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 787 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (2.2%), with 320,000 lots traded and an increase of 12,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices rose. Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments decreased, and global shipments decreased slightly. Iron ore demand (hot metal production) increased slightly, and port inventories increased. Under the influence of multiple factors, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1215.5 yuan/ton, up 53.5 yuan/ton (4.6%), with an increase of 21,826 lots in positions. Some spot prices fell. Due to coal mine safety inspections and the approaching military parade, supply was affected, and demand was also restricted in some areas. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan/ton (3.43%), with an increase of 2368 lots in positions. Spot prices rose. Many coking enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase, but production was restricted due to the approaching military parade. Some steel mills increased freight rates, while others controlled purchases. Short - term coke futures are expected to fluctuate [1]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price strengthened on Monday, closing at 5898 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. Positions decreased. Market sentiment was volatile. Production has been increasing continuously, while demand stimulation is limited, and inventory is at a medium - level in recent years. It is expected to fluctuate with a bottom support in the short term [1][2]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened slightly on Monday, closing at 5680 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. Positions decreased. Production has been increasing, demand has improved slightly, and inventory has declined. Production costs have increased, and profits have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate with a bottom support in the short term [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities, as well as profit margins and cross - commodity spreads such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [3] 3.3 Chart Analysis - It includes charts of main contract prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, cross - variety contract spreads, and rebar profits of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different commodities [4][6][8][12][15][18][19][22][24][27][29][31][34][36][37][39][42][44][46][47][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and experience in the black commodity research field [53][54]