Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On August 25th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.06%, and the open interest increased by 9,744 lots to 289,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,478 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 55 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,580 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.73%, and the open interest decreased by 5,596 lots to 139,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 7,060 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rising price of silicon coal. Silicon plants sold a large amount of products to traders, while downstream purchases were relatively small. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti-involution efforts, the price of polysilicon was basically under control. With the production resumption in the southwest region, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase, but the industrial clearance had not been effectively promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand [2]. - The market is currently highly focused on the photovoltaic industry meeting jointly held by six ministries and commissions. The policy may gradually shift from direct production control to linking with production capacity and technical indicators. The dynamics of the anti-involution meeting have an absolute driving force on the short-term market and may guide the correction of expectations and the callback of the premium. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting at high levels. The implementation details of the energy-saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions driven by policies [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend on August 25th. The cost of industrial silicon increased, and the price adjustment continued. The polysilicon market faced inventory pressure, and the separation between volume and price continued to expand. The market is highly concerned about the photovoltaic industry meeting, and policy dynamics may affect the market [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts increased. The prices of most spot varieties also showed an upward trend, with the price of the lowest deliverable product rising by 50 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowing by 75 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,250 tons. The total social inventory increased by 2,400 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts increased. The prices of most spot varieties rose, with the price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock increasing by 3,500 yuan/ton to 49,000 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained unchanged, and the spot discount widened by 155 yuan/ton to 7,060 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 28,000 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [3]. - Organic Silicon: The prices of DMC, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: The report presents charts on industrial silicon prices, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. - Downstream Finished Product Prices: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15]. - Inventory: Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][21]. - Cost and Profit: Charts illustrate the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [24][26][30].
光大期货工业硅日报-20250826
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-26 05:03