农产品日报：需求提振有限，猪价维持震荡-20250826

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Report Core Views - For the pig industry, supply pressure is expected to decrease in the future, and there is an obvious expectation of improvement in consumption, but the impact may be limited. Price support mainly relies on the short - term supply gap created by the increase in secondary fattening. The current overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the short - term demand boost may have a certain impact, but the long - term pattern is difficult to change [2] - For the egg industry, the demand has improved due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, tourism, catering, and school opening. However, the continuous increase in the number of laying hens in production and the release of cold - storage eggs have led to an oversupply situation, making it difficult to change the overall pattern in the short term [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,910 yuan/ton, a change of +70.00 yuan/ton (+0.51%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 13.67 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous day), with a spot basis of LH09 - 240 (a change of - 10 from the previous day); in Jiangsu, it was 13.77 yuan/kg (a change of - 0.04 yuan/kg), with a spot basis of LH09 - 140 (a change of - 110 from the previous day); in Sichuan, it was 13.65 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous day), with a spot basis of LH09 - 260 (a change of +30 from the previous day). - Agricultural product wholesale prices on August 25: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 115.78, up 0.25 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 116.23, up 0.30 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.11 yuan/kg (unchanged from last Friday), beef was 65.09 yuan/kg (unchanged), mutton was 60.07 yuan/kg (up 0.9%), eggs were 7.65 yuan/kg (down 0.3%), and white - striped chickens were 17.57 yuan/kg (down 0.1%) [1] Market Analysis - Supply pressure is expected to decrease, and consumption improvement is expected, but the impact is limited. Price support depends on secondary fattening. Policy - based purchases this week have little impact, and the overall supply - demand pattern is unchanged in the short and long term [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3021 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 12.00 yuan (- 0.40%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.09 yuan/jin (a change of - 0.07), with a spot basis of JD09 + 69 (a change of - 58 from the previous day); in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin (unchanged), with a spot basis of JD09 + 229 (a change of +12 from the previous day); in Hebei, it was 2.69 yuan/jin (a change of +0.09), with a spot basis of JD09 - 331 (a change of +102 from the previous day). - On August 25, the national production - link inventory was 0.92 days (an increase of 0.05 days from the previous day), and the circulation - link inventory was 1.08 days (a decrease of 0.05 days from the previous day) [3] Market Analysis - Entering the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, demand has improved. However, the continuous increase in laying hens in production and the release of cold - storage eggs have led to an oversupply situation, making it difficult to change the pattern in the short term [4][5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]