铁矿石：宏观预期回暖，矿价偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for monetary and fiscal policies in the later period. The price this week will be more affected by the macro - situation. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, the demand side remains resilient, and the overall supply - demand relationship shifts from balanced and tight to balanced. The short - term price will mainly follow the market trend. The price will fluctuate strongly this week, with the main contract of Dalian Iron (2601 contract) in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black - series traded with strong expectations and weak reality, and the overall price rose due to macro - sentiment. The continuous three - week over - seasonal inventory accumulation of rebar at the finished - product end has suppressed the valuation level of the black - series, and the carbon element's disk valuation has returned. The high - profit of blast furnaces has declined from the high level, limiting the space for hot - metal increase. The unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the disk, and the price generally follows the sector trend [3]. Supply - The overseas ore shipments have slightly declined but still remain at a relatively high level. Among them, the shipments of Rio Tinto and FMG mines in Australia have significantly increased, the shipments from Brazil have dropped significantly after reaching a historical high, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines have also dropped from the high level. The arrival volume is at a medium - to - high level, and overall, the supply - side pressure has weakened [3]. Demand - The domestic daily average hot - metal volume has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot - metal output at 240.75 (a week - on - week increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from the high level, and the blast - furnace profit has also continuously decreased. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. Overall, the support of domestic demand for prices has weakened marginally. Later, attention should be paid to whether the hot - metal can remain at a high level and the military - parade production - restriction trends in North China [3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has decreased week - on - week. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly this period. In the future, with the increase in shipments and the decline of hot - metal production from the high level, it is expected that the inventory will generally remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [3].