Orient Securities·2025-08-26 05:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing and Shanghai align with expectations and are moderate in intensity, which will aid in regional inventory digestion. This series of "city-specific policies" strengthens confidence in the industry's long-term recovery path [1][4] - The recovery of real estate stocks does not solely depend on the timing of policy implementations; rather, the decline in risk-free interest rates and the reduction in industry risk assessments are the primary drivers of this recovery. The market has entered a new bottoming phase, where the impact of the denominator (risk-free rates) outweighs that of the numerator (real estate prices) [2] - The new policies in Shanghai, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions and adjustments to mortgage rates, are expected to stimulate demand in suburban areas, which will help reduce inventory [3] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - On August 25, Shanghai announced new housing policies, including easing purchase restrictions outside the outer ring and enhancing public housing fund support. The adjustments are expected to significantly impact the new housing market, particularly in suburban areas [3] - The report notes that the new policies are similar to those in Beijing, focusing on optimizing public housing fund policies and adjusting commercial loan rates to lower housing costs [3] Market Trends - Since Q2 of this year, the new housing market has shown signs of weakening in both volume and price, increasing the pressure for stabilization. The recent policies from Beijing and Shanghai have reinforced confidence in the industry's long-term recovery, with further policy space anticipated [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks: China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Hold) [5]