Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,509 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,550 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.84%. The spot basis in East China was 98 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton, down $1/ton; that of coal - made syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1]. - The inventory in the main ports of East China decreased to around 500,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 54,000 tons. The main port inventory may continue to decline. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and imports are expected to exceed 650,000 tons after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a high in late September [2]. - The supply - demand balance from August to September is loose, with few supply - demand contradictions [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,509 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,550 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.84%. The spot basis in East China was 98 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton, down $1/ton; that of coal - made syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. International Price Difference - The report does not provide specific content about international price differences other than the chart title "Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - There are signs of recovery in downstream demand, with increased foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a high in late September [2]. Inventory Data - The inventory in the main ports of East China decreased to around 500,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 54,000 tons. The main port inventory may continue to decline. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Both supply and demand are on an increasing trend, with few fundamental contradictions. However, the short - term arrival is low, and the increase in imports is expected to be realized in mid - to - late September. There is support under the short - term low inventory [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy [3]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [3].
化工日报：到港偏少，EG主港库存下降至低位-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-26 05:16