Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC is affected by the sentiment of the black sector, with its futures price rebounding. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact from the macro and cost sides. The supply pressure is large in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand is weak. The cost side needs continuous attention. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain weak [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda continues to rise. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is improving. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5047 yuan/ton (+28), the East China basis is - 297 yuan/ton (-8), and the South China basis is - 187 yuan/ton (+2) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (+30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2755 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 39 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 223 yuan/ton (+8), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 592 yuan/ton (-52), and the PVC export profit is 14.1 dollars/ton (+1.0) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-2.1), the social PVC inventory is 50.8 tons (+1.5), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 76.07% (-3.14%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 72.44% (-5.48%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.02% (-3.82%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 72.5 tons (-6.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2732 yuan/ton (-9), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 45 yuan/ton (+40) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 860 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1350 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1696 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 713.3 yuan/ton (-88.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 676.28 yuan/ton (+41.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1387.74 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.64 tons (-4.14), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.36 tons (+0.03), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 83.20% (-0.90%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 85.78% (+0.14%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 63.86% (+2.40%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 86.22% (+0.18%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The number of maintenance increases, and the operation rate decreases month - on - month. However, the overall operation rate is at a high level due to the support of chlor - alkali profits. With the new production capacity gradually reaching full production, the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is large [3]. - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products remains low, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. The export signing and delivery volume increase week - on - week. Affected by the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, the PVC export in July exceeded expectations. After India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties, the rush to export is expected to continue, and the export expectation in the fourth quarter weakens [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory continues to accumulate and is relatively high compared to the same period. The warehouse receipt pressure of the 09 contract is large [3]. - Cost side: Coal and ethylene in the cost side have shown strong consolidation recently, and attention should be paid to their further impact on the PVC cost [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: The number of maintenance of chlor - alkali enterprises increases, and the operation rate decreases month - on - month but remains at a high level compared to the same period. The operation rate in Shandong increases slightly, also at a high level compared to the same period. After the maintenance of Yantai Wanhua, the operation rate may decline slightly [3]. - Demand side: The profit of alumina is acceptable, and the operation rate is stable month - on - month. The delivery volume of caustic soda to alumina plants, the main downstream, is lower than the daily consumption, and downstream manufacturers continue to raise the purchase price. The operation rate of non - aluminum sectors increases slightly month - on - month, and the procurement is good. Affected by the military parade in mid - to - late August, the transportation of caustic soda is restricted, and the downstream stocking sentiment improves. With the approaching of the peak season, the pending orders in Shandong are acceptable, and the enterprise inventory pressure decreases [3]. - Cost and profit: The price of liquid chlorine is weak, but the cost support still exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Neutral [4] - Inter - delivery spread: Wait - and - see [4] - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when the price is low [5] - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]
烧碱下游继续上调接货价
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-26 05:16