农产品日报：郑棉走势震荡偏强，白糖延续窄幅波动-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. Internationally, the USDA's August report tightened the supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production remains uncertain. Domestically, low commercial inventories support prices, but new - year production increase and hedging pressure are concerns. The sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. Brazilian sugar production has quality issues, and the increase in domestic imports suppresses prices. The pulp futures price oscillated. Supply pressure persists due to high port inventories, and demand remains weak both at home and abroad [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.64%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,235 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The 2025 cotton import sliding - scale duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's August report tightened the supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production is uncertain. Domestic: Low commercial inventories support prices, the sliding - scale duty quota policy has limited impact, and new - year production increase and hedging pressure are concerns [2] Strategy - Neutral. Monitor peak - season demand. If demand improves, the price may be strong before new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure during the listing period [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5688 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5860 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Brazilian mid - southern cane yield and sugar content decreased [2][3] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production has quality issues, and some institutions have lowered production estimates. Domestic: High import profits and increased imports suppress prices [4] Strategy - Neutral. The downside is limited, with short - term range - bound trading and a possible end - of - year price increase [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5136 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5790 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged. Some imported pulp prices increased slightly [5] Market Analysis - Supply: High imports in the first half of 2025, more domestic production capacity in the second half, but slow port de - stocking and high inventory levels. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand during the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The fundamentals are not improving, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile [7]