Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a game between expectations and reality, with steel prices expected to fluctuate and rise. The iron ore market is boosted by macro - sentiment, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. The coking coal and coke markets are also affected by market sentiment, with prices rising, while the thermal coal market sees a slight decline in coal prices after the end - of - month inventory is completed [1][3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3389 yuan/ton. Today's steel spot transactions were generally average. The spot price followed the increase in the futures price, and the transactions improved compared to last week, mainly at low prices. After the spot price increase, the transactions weakened, and the market sentiment became cautious. Yesterday's steel transactions were 11100 tons. The production and sales of building materials continued to weaken, and inventory increased monthly, showing obvious off - season characteristics with insufficient speculative demand. The production and sales of plates increased monthly, and inventory continued to accumulate. Plate consumption has strong resilience, and export orders are expected to improve after the price decline. Currently, the market is affected by interest - rate cut expectations, with a positive macro - expectation, and the market sentiment has improved due to raw material support. However, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamental supply - demand situation [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production and sales of building materials continue to weaken, and inventory increases monthly, showing obvious off - season characteristics with insufficient speculative demand. The production and sales of plates increase monthly, and inventory continues to accumulate. Plate consumption has strong resilience, and export orders are expected to improve after the price decline. Currently, the market is affected by interest - rate cut expectations, with a positive macro - expectation, and the market sentiment has improved due to raw material support. However, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamental supply - demand situation, so steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated and rose. The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 787 yuan/ton, with a 2.27% increase. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port continued to rise. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly this period, with a total shipment of 33.16 million tons. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions decreased, while shipments from Australia increased significantly. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports this period was 23.93 million tons, a decrease of 830000 tons compared to the previous week. Yesterday, the cumulative transactions of iron ore at major ports across the country were 1.12 million tons, a 36.75% increase compared to the previous day; the cumulative transactions of forward - looking spot were 1.084 million tons (6 transactions), a 13.28% decrease compared to the previous day (the mine's transaction volume was 30000 tons) [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: As the previous high - floating cargo gradually arrives at ports, the supply of iron ore increases monthly. The high pig - iron production ensures the rigid demand for iron ore, but the demand will decline due to the impact of the parade. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is relatively limited. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of the change in floating cargo volume on port arrivals, as well as the changes in iron ore shipments and pig - iron production [3] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke showed an obvious upward trend. The 2601 contract of coking coal increased by 6.48%, and the 2601 contract of coke increased by 4.36%. In the imported coking coal market, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal increased rapidly, and the quotation fluctuated with the futures price. Thanks to the improved market sentiment, the enthusiasm of traders increased [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: In the coke market, the seventh round of price increases has been fully implemented, strengthening short - term confidence. Some coke enterprises maintain low inventory after profit restoration, providing support for the spot price. On the supply side, affected by the "9.3 Parade", some coke enterprises in Shandong have received oral notices of production restrictions and are expected to resume production after the parade; traffic control in the Beijing - surrounding area has requirements for coke transport vehicles, reducing the logistics supply efficiency, and the overall supply is tight. On the demand side, it remains resilient but is restricted by the contraction of steel mill profits and production - restriction expectations. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in pig - iron production and policy regulation. In the coking coal market, production has increased slightly. The impact of over - production inspections has weakened recently, but due to rainfall and safety accidents, the increase in domestic coking coal production is slow. At the same time, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly under the support policies of the Mongolian government, and the overall supply continues to increase [6] - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke trading are expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the spot market, the coal price in the production area decreased slightly. Near the end of the month, most terminals have completed inventory replenishment, and the procurement demand has declined. Some coal mines have slightly reduced prices, there are more failed auctions in the market, and the number of coal - hauling trucks at coal mines has decreased. In the port market, the market sentiment has declined. As the daily power - plant consumption decreases, the port market is in a stalemate. Market participants are cautious about the future, and the short - term coal price is under pressure. In the import market, the quotation of imported coal is firm. As the price of domestic coal has stopped rising, the inquiry volume of imported coal has decreased, and there are few transactions [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply in the production area is slowly recovering. As the daily power - plant consumption decreases, the short - term coal price is weakly stable. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8] - Strategy: No strategy provided [9]
黑色建材日报：预期现实博弈，钢价震荡抬升-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-26 05:20