新能源及有色金属日报：供应扰动仍有不确定性，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is still favorable, with both inventory and production decreasing. After the decline of the futures price, the downstream purchasing willingness remains high. Affected by the disturbances at the mining end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the price fluctuation is large. The report suggests short - term cautious bullishness and attention to the start - up situation of other mines [3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On August 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 81,000 yuan/ton and closed at 79,380 yuan/ton, a - 0.30% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 626,916 lots, and the open interest was 368,667 lots. The basis was 3,340 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 25,630 lots, a change of 640 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,200 - 84,800 yuan/ton, a - 1,400 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,600 - 80,800 yuan/ton, also a - 1,400 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 920 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot price has declined, and the downstream purchasing and price - setting behavior has become more stable compared to last week. The trading volume has decreased today, and the downstream purchasing attitude has turned cautious [1]. - Currently in the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, downstream demand still has certain rigid support [1]. Production and Inventory - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. The production from spodumene increased, while the production from mica decreased. The weekly inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. The downstream inventory increased significantly, and the smelter inventory decreased [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term cautious bullish, pay attention to the start - up situation of other mines. - For cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, no strategies are provided [3].