油脂日报：马棕高价或抑制需求，价格震荡调整-20250826

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The high price of Malaysian palm oil may suppress demand, leading to price fluctuations and adjustments. The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The Malaysian palm oil futures price fell on Monday due to concerns that the recent high prices may suppress future demand. Although the overall demand remains good due to the upcoming festival stocking in China, the long - term inversion of the soybean oil - palm oil price spread also exerts certain pressure on the market [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9582.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.10% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8488.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.00 yuan or 0.35%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9891.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.00 yuan or 0.01% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9550.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.00 yuan or 0.74%. The spot basis was P01 + - 32.00, an increase of 80.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8620.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 80.00 yuan/ton or 0.94%. The spot basis was Y01 + 132.00, an increase of 50.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10010.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was OI01 + 119.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [1] Market News - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 were 1065005 tons, a 16.4% increase compared to the same period last month. China has purchased over 70% of its October - shipment soybeans, and only 10% of November - shipment soybeans. The domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly last week. As of the week of August 22, the domestic main oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 220,000 tons, and an increase of 350,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years. It is expected that the oil mills' operating rate will remain high this week, and the crushing volume will rebound to about 2.5 million tons. The C&F prices of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment), US West soybeans (September shipment), and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) were 471, 465, and 489 US dollars/ton respectively. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) were 550 and 540 US dollars/ton respectively [2]