新能源及有色金属日报：弱现实与政策预期博弈，多晶硅盘面震荡运行-20250826

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The industrial silicon market shows a short - term improvement in supply - demand pattern with slight inventory reduction, but high total inventory and supply increase pressure suppress the upward movement of the futures price. The polysilicon market is affected by policies, with large price fluctuations, and is suitable for long - position layout at low prices in the medium - to - long term [1][3][7] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On August 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures market opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 8930 yuan/ton and closed at 8675 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 289,125 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,938 lots, a decrease of 111 lots from the previous day [1] Supply Side - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Tianjin, Northwest, Xinjiang, and Shanghai increased, while individual prices in Sichuan decreased. Prices in Kunming and Huangpu Port remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained unchanged. As of August 21, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1] Consumption Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The upstream and downstream were in a deep game. Although the monomer enterprises adopted a promotion strategy to relieve inventory pressure, the downstream was still cautious due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal orders, and only replenished goods in moderation according to production needs [2] Strategy - In the short term, the supply - demand pattern has improved with a slight inventory reduction, but the high total industry inventory and supply increase pressure suppress the upward movement of the futures price. It may fluctuate mainly according to the overall commodity sentiment in the short term [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On August 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 52,320 yuan/ton and closing at 51,580 yuan/ton, a change of 0.73% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,801 lots (142,397 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 360,522 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, with N - type material at 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg and N - type granular silicon at 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg [5] Inventory and Production - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.90% increase from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.41GW, a 12.07% decrease. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the silicon wafer production was 12.29GW, a 1.57% increase [5][6] Product Prices - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, 210mm, and 210R silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.23 yuan/piece, 1.58 yuan/piece, and 1.38 yuan/piece respectively. The prices of battery cells and components also remained stable [6] Strategy - Recently, the spot quotation of polysilicon has increased, and the prices of downstream products have also risen. The supply - demand fundamentals are average, with polysilicon inventory accumulation and average consumption - end installation data. The futures price is greatly affected by the anti - involution policy. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within a range, and in the medium - to - long term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [7]