股债商品共振上涨，人民币汇率走强

Market Analysis - In July, the global economic data remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while the non - manufacturing sector stayed in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in dollar terms, higher than expected. Financial data showed that money supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were still weak. Investment data faced significant pressure [2]. - The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real - estate market. The central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, with a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan in August, and a total net medium - term liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan [2]. - A - shares had a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3900 points and the trading volume reaching 3.14 trillion yuan. AI hardware stocks soared, and sectors like real estate and liquor rose. In the bond market, treasury bond futures went up, with the 30 - year main contract rising over 0.7%. Domestic commodity futures all increased, led by coking coal and coke. The RMB central parity rate was raised by 160 points [2]. - In the US, the July non - farm payroll data was lower than expected, but the August PMI continued to improve. The "Big Beautiful" Act might support subsequent consumption [2]. Policy and Tariff News - On July 31, the White House re - set "reciprocal tariff" rates for some countries. On August 19, the US Commerce Department added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tariff rate. Trump said he would announce semiconductor tariffs within two weeks, with a possible rate of 300% [3]. - On August 22, Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting showed a dovish turn, suggesting a possible policy adjustment due to increased downside risks to employment. This cleared the way for a Fed rate cut in September [3]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the non - ferrous sector's supply constraints remain unrelieved [3]. - The government will regulate the photovoltaic industry to prevent low - price competition. By 2027, industries with relatively stable carbon emissions will be subject to quota - based total control. OPEC+ accelerated production, increasing by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. Agricultural products are currently driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [4]. To - do List - This week, 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the Chinese central bank's open market will mature, and there will also be 300 billion yuan of MLF and 90 billion yuan of term reverse repurchases maturing [5]. - On August 25, the National Development and Reform Commission held a corporate symposium to listen to opinions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index continued to reach a new high in more than a decade, approaching 3900 points. Over 3300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan [5]. - On August 25, the Ukrainian president announced that Ukraine and the US would hold talks this weekend to discuss the possibility of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia [3][5].