尿素日报：厂家降价吸单，下游采购谨慎-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, go for reverse hedging on 01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the impact of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers are reducing prices to attract orders, but downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and there has been an improvement in trading. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high compared to the same period. Although some companies are expected to undergo maintenance next week and production may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea production is okay, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 25, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1745 yuan/ton (+6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (-40), and in Jiangsu was 1710 yuan/ton (-30). The basis in Shandong was - 45 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 35 yuan/ton (-46), and in Jiangsu was - 35 yuan/ton (-36) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Next week, Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to undergo maintenance, and production may decline slightly. However, with the release of new production capacity, future urea supply - demand remains relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 25, 2025, the urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (-40). The coal - based urea profit is okay, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of August 25, 2025, the export profit was 1270 yuan/ton (+1). August is the export window period, urea export is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.84% (-2.64%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 46.60% (-3.22%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (-0.23). The downstream industrial demand is weak, and there is still resistance to high - priced goods [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.39 million tons (+6.65), and the port sample inventory was 50.10 million tons (+3.70). The upstream inventory is still relatively high compared to the same period [1]