有色金属周报（电解铜）：特朗普或将掌控美联储增强降息预期，全球电解铜总库存量初现下降支撑铜价-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased, there is an expectation of the traditional off - season turning into the peak season in the domestic market, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper has started to decline, which may lead to a cautious and bullish trend in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors hold their long positions from the previous day cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. - The Shanghai copper basis is negative and at a relatively low level, while the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. Due to factors such as the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, continuous tight supply of global copper concentrates, and the expectation of the traditional off - season turning into the peak season in the domestic market, investors are advised to pay attention to the short - term arbitrage opportunity of going long on the Shanghai copper basis at low prices [7]. - The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper are negative and at relatively low levels, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 75% quantile of the past five - year average. Considering factors such as Trump's tariff policy and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see regarding the arbitrage opportunity of the LME copper (3 - 15) contract spread [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - environment - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the change in the risk balance may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in September. However, attention should be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream - In August, the domestic production (import) volume of copper concentrates increased (increased) month - on - month. The export restriction of high - quality scrap copper in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper by traders, who instead supply through transit countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window. As a result, the domestic production (import) volume of scrap copper in August may increase (decrease) month - on - month, and the supply - demand outlook is tight [2][25]. - The No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's 150,000 - ton anode plate project (Phase II: 250,000 - ton copper rod project; Phase III: 200,000 - ton cathode copper and copper alloy project) was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (decreased) month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plate production decreased compared to the previous week. The capacity for crude smelting maintenance in domestic smelters in August may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to an increase (increase) in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper in August [2][28]. - The 600,000 - ton cathode copper production capacity of Jianfa Shenghai may be put into operation in May 2026. The second - phase project of Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan with an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi at the end of March and will achieve a capacity of 250,000 tons after completion. These factors may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the domestic production volume of electrolytic copper in August. The delay in ship bookings due to African agricultural exports until late August has led to inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper in Durban and Dar es Salaam ports, which may result in a month - on - month decrease in the domestic import volume of electrolytic copper in August [2][34]. Downstream - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) increased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises also decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper wire and cable decreased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises decreased (increased) compared to the previous week. The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of domestic copper enameled wire decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of enameled wire enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of domestic copper strips decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises decreased (remained flat) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper tubes decreased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises increased (increased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic brass rods increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [3][35][49]. - In August, the capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable (due to weak terminal orders in construction and relatively stable orders in the power grid and new energy sectors) and copper enameled wire (due to weakening terminal demand in household appliances and significant order decline) may decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips (although demand in new energy vehicles, power, and high - end electronics is good, but demand in household appliances and photovoltaics is weak, resulting in a significant decline， in new orders for some enterprises) and copper foils (due to the significant increase in demand for HVLP ultra - low profile copper foils in the AI field, orders for many copper foil enterprises are saturated) may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes (as the estimated total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August is lower than that of last year, and high tariffs suppress export orders to the US) may decrease month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of brass rods (due to the potential growth in demand from new energy and power sectors, which may improve large - enterprise orders, but small and medium - sized enterprises still face high raw material costs, tight funds, and insufficient orders) may increase month - on - month [55][63][69]. Inventory - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to the previous week. The opening of the import window may increase the domestic import volume of electrolytic copper, leading to a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas compared to the previous week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange increased compared to the previous week [16][17]. - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports decreased compared to the previous week [20]. - The COMEX copper inventory increased compared to the previous week [19]. Futures Spread and Structure - The Shanghai copper basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range [7]. - The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper are negative and at relatively low levels, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 75% quantile of the past five - year average [8]. - The spreads between COMEX copper and LME copper, as well as between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper, are negative and basically within a reasonable range. The spreads between different - maturity contracts of COMEX copper are also negative and basically within a reasonable range [10][12]. - The closing prices of near - and far - term contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [13]. Position - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month. The non - commercial long (short) positions decreased (increased), and the commercial long (short) positions increased (increased) [18][19].