原油日报：宏观情绪与俄乌局势推动油价反弹-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for oil prices is range - bound, and a medium - term short position is recommended [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have rebounded recently but have not broken through the previous trading range. In the short term, this is mainly influenced by macro sentiment and geopolitics. Powell's statement has increased the probability of a September interest rate cut, boosting market risk appetite. Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse, with the time and location of the talks undetermined, and the war shows no sign of easing [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.14 to close at $64.80 per barrel, a gain of 1.79%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.07 to close at $68.80 per barrel, a gain of 1.58%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 1.16% at 499 yuan per barrel [1] - Indonesia's Trade Ministry urged the EU to immediately lift the counter -vailing duties on biodiesel imports as the WTO ruled in Indonesia's favor on several key claims in its complaint [1] - Iran will hold talks with the UK, France, and Germany in Geneva, Switzerland on the Iranian nuclear issue. The talks will also cover the lifting of sanctions, the nuclear issue, and the future of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 [1] - Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have exacerbated the summer fuel crisis in Russia, causing prices to soar during the seasonal demand peak. In August, Russian fuel wholesale prices hit a record high, and fuel shortages have been reported in some regions [1] Investment Logic - Oil price rebounds are affected by macro sentiment and geopolitical factors, including the increased probability of a September interest rate cut and the deadlock in Russia - Ukraine negotiations [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Short position in oil [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russia, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russia, and Middle East conflicts lead to large - scale supply disruptions [3]