航运日报：9月份PA联盟两个空班被填补，关注马士基9月第二周报价-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as it is a off - season contract, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The risk for the December contract lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [6][7][9] - The supply of container ship capacity is affected by factors such as ship delivery and empty - sail filling. The freight rate is influenced by supply and demand, economic conditions, and shipping company strategies. [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 80,906.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 49,119.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1496.90, 1284.00, 1445.70, 2136.00, 1358.00, and 1696.70 respectively. [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210; HPL's quotes for the first half and second half of September were 1435/2235. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes for the second half of August and September were 1510/2620 and 1410/2420 respectively. [1][3] - The final delivery settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the freight rate center continues to decline. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. [5][6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU, and the capacity in week 35 was 30.84 TEU. The average weekly capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 36/37/38/39 were 326,500/276,000/314,500/325,500 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in October was 282,300 TEU. [4] - In September, the two empty sailings of the PA alliance were filled. In week 38, the FE4 route was filled by HMM AQUAMARINE (13,788 TEU), and in week 37, the FE3 route was filled by HMM ALGECIRAS (23,964 TEU). HPL announced information about two additional ships in October. [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 176,880 TEU. [9] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the fourth quarter, Western holidays are concentrated, and shipping companies usually adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level. However, if ships from the US route are transferred to the European route, it may put pressure on European route prices. [7]