尿素早评：出口预期影响市场-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The continuous decline of the urea futures price is mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. The agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains at a high level, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and an upstream inventory of about 930,000 tons. - Although the current export policy is unclear, under the situation of sufficient domestic supply and low prices, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply. However, it is necessary to prevent the urea price from rising too rapidly in the short term, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. - It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the price decline. (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - On August 25, UR01 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35% from August 22; UR05 closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.39%; UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.06%. The prices in Shandong and Shanxi also showed different changes, with Shandong down 40 yuan (- 2.30%) and 20 yuan (- 1.23%) respectively [1]. Spot Price - Domestic spot prices in different regions generally declined on August 25 compared with August 22. For example, in Henan, the price dropped 40 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 2.29%); in Hebei, it dropped 40 yuan to 1730 yuan/ton (- 2.26%); in Jiangsu, it dropped 30 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 1.72%), while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 89 yuan/ton on August 25, down 47 yuan from August 22. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 44 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S), melamine in different regions also remained stable [1]. Trading Information of the Main Contract - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1754 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1735 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1746 yuan/ton. The position volume was 222,940 lots [1].