综合晨报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different commodities having their own supply - demand and price characteristics. Some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to remain in a range - bound state. [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Energy and Petrochemicals - Crude Oil: Global crude oil has seen a 2% inventory reduction in the second half of the year, with overall petroleum inventory slightly down 0.2%. The expected supply - demand surplus in Q3 is not confirmed. With increased 9 - month interest rate cut expectations, the unilateral price is seen as strong in the short - term. [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Singapore's ship - fuel sales decreased 1.7% year - on - year by the end of July, and China's demand dropped 1%. However, supply also decreased 19%. The inventory pressure is relieved, and the fundamentals are positive. [21] - Asphalt: The demand is expected to rise during the construction season from August to October. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 3450 - 3600 yuan/ton for the 10 - contract. [22] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The international market rebounds. The domestic market is in a repair phase in the short - term but faces long - term overseas production increase pressure. [23] - Urea: After the export policy adjustment, the port inventory increases, but the market is cautious. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. [24] - Methanol: The supply increases, and the demand weakens. The port is expected to accumulate inventory rapidly. The market has released all negative factors. [25] Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are in an oscillating trend. With the market pricing a September interest rate cut, a callback - buying strategy is recommended. [3] - Copper: The copper price is affected by multiple factors. It is close to the 80,000 - yuan resistance level. Opportunities to sell call options are awaited. [4] - Aluminum: The inventory shows a seasonal increase. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 20800 - 21000 yuan. [5] - Zinc: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The price is expected to face pressure on rebounds. [8] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel shows a slight rebound. The inventory levels are high. The price has a rebound intention but weak fundamentals. [9] Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern emerges. In China, Q4 supply is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal in the medium - long term. [35] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The U.S. biodiesel policy has a structural adjustment. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong. Both oils can be considered for buying at low prices. [36] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The supply uncertainty of rapeseed is decreasing, and the focus shifts to demand. The prices may oscillate in the short - term. [37] - Corn: With sufficient supply and good weather for new - season corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom. [39] - Cotton: The international cotton market lacks strong positives. The domestic market has concerns about new - cotton pre - sales. A callback - buying strategy is recommended. [42] Others - Stock Index: A - share indices rise, and the Shanghai property market policy is adjusted. The market continues to focus on domestic and foreign policy signals and recommends increasing technology - growth sectors. [47] - Treasury Bonds: With the stock market rising, the treasury bond futures are under pressure, and the yield curve is likely to steepen. [48] - Shipping Index: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to oscillate and decline slowly. The 12 - contract may have an undervaluation opportunity. [20]