新能源及有色金属日报：下游采购积极性难调动-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a bias towards short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current macro - sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities show a strong trend. In the zinc spot market, the discount has slightly widened, making it difficult for traders to support prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is hard to mobilize. With the continuous rise of imported TC, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is still increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the decline in zinc prices has limited impact on smelting profit, so smelting enthusiasm remains. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs to be watched out for [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Spot - LME zinc spot premium is - 2.95 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22310 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 160 yuan/ton to 22310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22290 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.2 Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22220 yuan/ton, closed at 22395 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 131380 lots, and the position was 105259 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22465 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22200 yuan/ton [3] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 13.85 million tons, a change of 0.56 million tons from the previous period. As of August 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a change of - 1300 tons from the previous trading day [4] 3.2 Market Analysis - Macro - sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities are strong. In the zinc spot market, discounts widen slightly, and traders struggle to support prices. The imported TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw materials, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit is over 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on it, so smelting enthusiasm remains. Even in the peak consumption season, domestic inventory is expected to accumulate. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure, but overseas inventory impact needs attention [5] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, with a bias towards short positions; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]