有色商品日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated higher, and domestic copper trended slightly stronger. The Fed Chair's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium cleared the way for a September rate cut, but market concerns about high - inflation data may pose obstacles. Seasonal demand is expected to pick up as the off - season ends. There are expectations of restocking by domestic processing enterprises and rapid destocking of social inventories, which could drive LME copper into a destocking phase and support price stabilization. However, the potential upside in September may be limited compared to the first half of the year [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended weakly, while Shanghai aluminum trended slightly stronger. Alumina's复产 rhythm is increasing, and the expectation of oversupply is pressuring prices. Cost support is strengthening due to reduced bauxite shipments during the rainy season and potential mining restrictions during the September 3 parade. Aluminum prices are supported by a decline in domestic aluminum ingot inflows and increased downstream restocking. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventories and US rate - cut trends [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, Shanghai nickel rose 0.05%. Domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The overall fundamentals changed little, with no prominent contradictions in the industrial chain, and prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macro factors include the Fed's dovish stance and market inflation concerns. Inventory changes show a decrease in LME copper inventory, an increase in Comex copper inventory, and a decrease in SHFE copper warehouse receipts. Seasonal demand is expected to improve, and there are restocking expectations in the domestic market, which may support price stabilization [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices are under pressure due to increased复产 and inventory accumulation, but cost support limits deep declines. Aluminum prices are supported by reduced inflows and increased downstream restocking, and the formation of a cyclical inflection point needs further confirmation [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices rose slightly, with a decrease in domestic SHFE warehouse receipts. The fundamentals are stable, and prices are likely to move in a range [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 575 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 0.8 million tons. The active - contract import profit and loss improved by 550 yuan/ton [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 100 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased by 1154 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased. The social inventory of alumina decreased by 2.2 million tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 260 tons [4]. - Zinc: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.5%. The social inventory increased by 0.74 million tons on a weekly basis [5]. - Tin: The主力 settlement price increased by 1.0%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 301 tons on a weekly basis [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premiums: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - LME Inventories: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - SHFE Inventories: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - Social Inventories: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profits: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, with extensive experience in commodity research and many awards. Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both provide in - depth reports and policy interpretations for clients [49][50].