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燃料油日报:仓单压力边际缓和,FU盘面结构走强-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-26 05:48

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 5.06% at 2,907 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.7% at 3,526 yuan/ton [1]. - After continuous decline, crude oil prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding, strengthening the cost - side support for fuel oil, but the oil market still faces downward pressure in the medium term [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure of the outer - market has stabilized. Supply pressure in the Asia - Pacific region has eased marginally, and the internal - external price difference of FU has rebounded strongly. If oil prices continue to rebound, FU may perform relatively strongly in the sector [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market contradictions are limited. Overseas supply has recovered, and the outer - market has shown a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - term, the industry still faces contradictions such as demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and face crude - oil end suppression in the medium term; low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be volatile in the short term and face crude - oil end suppression in the medium term. For cross - period trading, it is recommended to go long the spread of FU2510 - 2511 when the price is low [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Crude oil prices have signs of stabilizing and rebounding after continuous decline, but the oil market still faces medium - term downward pressure. The cost - side support for fuel oil has strengthened again [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure has stabilized. Middle East and Singapore fuel oil inventories have declined, and the supply of arbitrage cargoes from the West has decreased. The potential delivery resources of domestic FU have been restricted, leading to a significant rebound in the internal - external price difference [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, domestic production remains low, but overseas supply has recovered. The outer - market has weakened marginally, and the industry faces medium - term contradictions such as demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatility is bullish, and medium - term faces crude - oil end suppression [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatility, and medium - term faces crude - oil end suppression [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: Go long the spread of FU2510 - 2511 when the price is low [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].