新能源及有色金属日报：美元走弱背景下，铜价震荡偏强-20250826

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [7] - Option investment rating: short put@77,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Although the downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong, due to the increased market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices remained relatively strong on Friday. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range around 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Market: On August 25, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,710 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,690 yuan/ton, up 1.27% from the previous trading day's close. The overnight opening price was 79,600 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,640 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon closing price [1] - Spot Market: The spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 80 - 220 yuan/ton, with an average of 140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price was 79,270 - 79,520 yuan/ton. After entering the next - month invoice, it is expected that the trading will slow down, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper may remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - Macro - level: Fed Chairman Powell's speech increased the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and the US has included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list [3] - Mine - end: The Asian Development Bank will provide $410 million in financing for Barrick Mining's Reko Diq copper mine in Pakistan. Codelco's El Teniente copper mine has partially restarted operations [4] - Smelting and Import: Amid the Sino - US trade war, US metal traders are transshipping scrap copper through third - countries to avoid China's 10% import tariff. China's direct imports of scrap copper from the US have dropped significantly, but the overall import volume has remained stable [4] - Consumption: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 1.20 percentage points to 71.80%, mainly driven by the resumption of production of previously overhauled enterprises. The overall downstream consumption is weak, and it is expected that the operating rate will decline next week. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased slightly, and it is also expected to decline next week [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 375 tons to 155,975 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 23,747 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons to 12.30 million tons [6] Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range around 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Option: short put@77,000 yuan/ton [7] Data Table - The table shows the price, basis, inventory, warehouse receipt, arbitrage, import profit, and other data of copper on August 26, 2025, August 25, 2025, August 19, 2025, and July 27, 2025 [24][25][26]