氧化铝现货价格重心下移

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [11] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [11] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of limited supply, high industry profits are not a factor restricting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term upward movement of aluminum prices requires resonance between a favorable macro - environment and strong micro - consumption. Currently in the off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, and long - term attention should be paid to delivery risks. Wait for long - term long opportunities brought by callbacks caused by inventory accumulation, macro factors, and tariff impacts. For alumina, the supply is in surplus, and the prices in the domestic and overseas spot markets are starting to weaken. For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and there are still opportunities for spread arbitrage in the 11 - contract [7][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,780 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,720 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton, and the aluminum spot premium changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,625 yuan/ton, closed at 20,770 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,800 yuan/ton and a low of 20,620 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 146,160 lots, and the open interest was 248,343 lots [3] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, with a change of 2.0 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 56,670 tons, down 474 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 478,725 tons, down 800 tons from the previous trading day [3] 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On August 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,190 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,215 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3] 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,141 yuan/ton, closed at 3,184 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 1.34%. The high was 3,216 yuan/ton, and the low was 3,141 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 455,135 lots, and the open interest was 193,845 lots [3] 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 25, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil cast aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical cast aluminum was 15,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,300 tons [5] 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. In the long run, under the restricted supply, high profits are not a factor restricting price increases. In the short term, price increases need a favorable macro - environment and strong consumption. Currently in the off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after inventory accumulation, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, and long - term attention should be paid to delivery risks. Wait for long - term long opportunities brought by callbacks [7] 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, the ex - factory price in Henan was 3,200 yuan/ton for 3,000 tons, and two transactions in Shanxi were both 3,180 yuan/ton, totaling 2,500 tons. The arrival price of a regular tender in Xinjiang for 10,000 tons was 3,450 - 3,460 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week. On the cost side, due to the decline in rainy - season shipments, the supply in the bulk market has decreased, and the transaction center of the ore end is at 75 US dollars/ton, while the sea freight is 23.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The bauxite price is in a stable and volatile trend. The industry still has smelting profit, and the supply is in surplus. The prices in the domestic and overseas spot markets are starting to weaken, the import window has opened compared with the southern domestic prices, and the situation of a weaker north and a stronger south in the domestic market remains. Currently, the futures price is basically at par with the spot price, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of the spot market transaction price [8][9] 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 410 yuan/ton. Consumption is starting to transition from the off - season to the peak season, and both the spot market price spread and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal recovery trend. Spread arbitrage in the 11 - contract can still be concerned [10] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, bearish on alumina with caution, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [11]