新能源及有色金属日报：宏观影响下，镍不锈钢价格止跌反弹-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, influenced more by macro - sentiment. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. Stainless steel prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend in the near future, facing the game between "high inventory" and "cost support" and being greatly affected by macro - policies and news [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - Futures: On August 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton and closed at 120,310 yuan/ton, up 0.59% from the previous trading day. Affected by the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve, the futures market continued to strengthen. The price fluctuated in a narrow range, with the long - side dominant due to capital inflow [1]. - Nickel Ore: The overall trading activity in the nickel ore market was at a medium level, and the mainstream prices remained stable. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes. In Indonesia, the (Phase II) August nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price decreased slightly, and the current mainstream domestic trade premium remained at +24. The (Phase I) September domestic trade premium is under negotiation, and it is expected to remain the same as before [2]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,600 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums of various brands were stable. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,292 (- 260.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,748 (150) tons [2]. - Strategy: Short - term nickel price trading should focus on range - bound operations, with no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - Futures: On August 25, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,770 yuan/ton and closed at 12,880 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and domestic real estate policies, the futures market strengthened. The price fluctuated in a narrow range, with the long - side dominant due to capital inflow [3]. - Spot: Boosted by the futures price rebound, market confidence recovered. Traders' quotes were stronger, and the downstream and middlemen's inquiry enthusiasm increased. The actual trading volume showed an upward trend. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,075 yuan/ton and 13,050 yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 340 - 490 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: The stainless steel market is facing the game between "high inventory" and "cost support". It is expected that the price will continue the range - bound trend in the near future. Trading should focus on range - bound operations, with no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].