Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in August is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased month - on - month [1]. - The rising prices of domestic and imported bauxite push up production costs. The decline in domestic alumina operating capacity cannot change the loose supply - demand outlook, limiting the upside potential of alumina prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [2]. - With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August, the transition from the traditional off - season to the peak season in the domestic market, and the low social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position, focusing on the support level around 20200 - 20400 and the resistance level around 21000 - 21500. For LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2300 - 2500 and the resistance level around 2700 - 2800 [2]. - With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August and the tight supply of scrap aluminum leading to near - loss in recycled aluminum alloy production, the aluminum alloy price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short term, focusing on the support level around 19800 - 20000 and the resistance level around 20300 - 20500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Aluminum Futures Active Contract: On August 25, 2025, the closing price was 20770, up 140 from the previous day; the trading volume was 146160 lots, up 11586; the open interest was 248343 lots, up 11056; the inventory was 56670 tons, down 474 [2]. - Shanghai Aluminum Basis: The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum was 20780, up 70; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 10, down 70; the spread between the near - month and the continuous - first contract was 15, down 5 [2]. - Alumina Spot Price: The national average price of alumina was 3241.72 yuan/ton, down 3.15; the average price in Shanxi was 3215 yuan/ton, down 5; in Shandong, it was 3190 yuan/ton, down 15; in Henan, it was 3215 yuan/ton, down 10 [2]. - Alumina Futures Price: On August 25, 2025, the closing price was 3184 yuan/ton, up 46; the trading volume was 455135 lots, up 182961; the open interest was 193845 lots, up 10870; the inventory was 83132 tons, up 5386; the basis was 57.72, down 49.15 [2]. - LME 3 - Month Aluminum Futures: On August 22, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 9796.5, up 72 from the previous day; the spread between the 0 - 3 - month contract was - 78.38, up 2.63; the spread between the 3 - 15 - month contract was - 158.98, up 12.64 [2]. Industry News - Anhui Wufang Electromechanical Co., Ltd. is investing 2 billion yuan in a project to produce 80,000 tons of aluminum castings per year in Bengbu High - tech Zone. The first - phase production capacity of 20,000 tons has been achieved, and the annual output value will reach 800 million yuan after full - scale production [2]. - Huafeng Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to jointly invest 20 million yuan with an affiliated company to establish Xinjiang Huafeng New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., aiming to build a production line with an annual output of 4 million square meters of high - voltage formed foil [2]. - India's National Aluminium Company (NALCO) plans to invest 171.63 billion Indian rupees to increase the smelter's annual capacity by 500,000 tons, 120 billion Indian rupees to increase power generation capacity by 1080 MW, and 56.77 billion Indian rupees to build a 1 - million - ton - per - year alumina refinery [2]. - The first - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huodu New Materials Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 300,000 tons of new pre - baked anodes was put into production on August 19, 2025. The second - phase project of 300,000 tons is expected to be put into production on October 19, and the third - phase project of 800,000 tons has started design [2]. Industry Supply and Demand - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in August is expected to be loose, with the production (import) volume likely to increase month - on - month. The port departure (arrival/inventory) volume of global (Chinese) port bauxite has decreased (decreased/increased) compared with last week [2]. - China's alumina production rate (production volume) has decreased compared with last week, leading to a decrease in the alumina inventory of Chinese alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants (SHFE) [2]. - Some projects are expected to increase China's alumina production in August, and the excess of China's alumina operating capacity compared with electrolytic aluminum in July has widened [2]. - Overseas alumina production in August is expected to decrease month - on - month, and the import window is closed, resulting in a decrease in domestic alumina imports (exports) and a decrease in domestic port alumina inventory [2].
铝产业链日评：国内铝土矿8月供需预期偏松，国内电解铝社会库存量环比增加-20250826
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-26 06:21