Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market presents a complex situation with various commodities showing different trends. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others have specific directional expectations based on supply - demand, policy, and seasonal factors. For example, some commodities are recommended for long - term investment opportunities, while others suggest short - term trading strategies or caution [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - Crude Oil: Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventories have decreased by 2%, refined oil inventories have increased by 2.9%, and overall petroleum inventories have slightly decreased by 0.2%. The expected supply - demand surplus in Q3 was not confirmed, and the short - term unilateral price is considered bullish due to strong seasonal demand and increased expectations of a September interest rate cut [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunker demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. However, domestic refinery production of marine fuel was also low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year. Inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased, and the fundamentals are relatively bullish [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The international market rebounded with the support of import demand. The domestic arrival volume continued to increase, and the short - term high chemical demand can be maintained. The spot market has released negative pressure, and the market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [23] - Natural Gas: No relevant content provided. - Coal: - Coking Coal: The output of coking coal mines decreased, and the spot auction transactions weakened. The total inventory increased, and the production - end inventory is likely to increase in the short term. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and has high short - term volatility with limited downside space [17] - Coking Coal: The price is oscillating upward. Some coking plants in certain regions have expectations of production restrictions. The overall inventory has slightly increased, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy with high short - term volatility and limited downside space [16] Metal Commodities - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The market has priced in a September interest rate cut, but there are differences in the statements of Fed officials. International gold and silver are in an oscillatory trend, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3] - Base Metals: - Copper: Overnight, Shanghai copper adjusted with a negative line. The short - term price was pushed above 79,500 by factors such as the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed. The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 80,000 [4] - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally recovered, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance in the 20,800 - 21,000 yuan area [5] - Zinc: The expectation of a September interest rate cut by the US increased, and the macro sentiment improved. Fundamentally, supply increased while demand was weak. The SMM zinc social inventory increased to 138,500 tons. The medium - term trend is expected to face resistance on rebounds [8] - Lead: The refinery's production reduction and vehicle transportation restrictions in some regions led to a decrease in the SMM lead social inventory to 68,300 tons, supporting the price rebound. The consumption expectation in September is mixed, and the price is expected to be oscillatory [9] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, and the market trading was dull. The pure nickel inventory decreased to 41,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons. Technically, the price has a rebound intention, but the fundamentals are weak, and short - selling opportunities should be sought [9] - Tin: Overnight, Shanghai tin oscillated below 270,000. Overseas tin has low - inventory support, and the domestic supply - demand is weak. The short - term price has the potential to rise, and long - positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [10] - Manganese Silicon: The price oscillated. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines. The demand from molten iron remains high, and the weekly output of silicon - manganese increased. The price has limited downside space [18] - Silicon Iron: The price oscillated. The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 240. The supply increased significantly, and the price has limited downside space after a significant decline [19] Chemical Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: The futures price of carbonate lithium corrected, and the market trading volume decreased. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons. The medium - term production decreased by 5% week - on - week. The market is focused on the expectation after the shutdown of downstream plants, and a bullish but risk - controlled strategy is recommended [11] - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The price of N - type polysilicon increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to be range - bound, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [12] - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures continued to oscillate. The expectation of polysilicon capacity governance policies has stabilized, and the impact on overall supply is limited. The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production schedule next month [13] - PVC & Caustic Soda: Driven by real - estate policies, PVC is relatively strong. The supply is high, and the demand is insufficient. The social inventory has continued to increase since July. The export pressure has increased. The price is expected to be range - bound. Caustic soda is oscillating strongly, and the price increase is expected to be limited due to long - term supply pressure [29] - Methanol: The methanol market is oscillating at a low level. The supply in the inland has increased, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory rapidly. Attention should be paid to the macro - atmosphere and the possibility of restarting coastal MTO plants [25] - Pure Benzene: The price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly at night. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic demand is weak. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. The supply - demand is expected to improve in Q3 but may be under pressure in Q4 [26] - Styrene: The cost - end support has improved slightly, but there is no upward impetus. The supply is high, and the demand is stable with little change. The inventory accumulation expectation remains [27] - Polypropylene & Polyethylene & Propylene: The inventory pressure of propylene producers is not large, but the downstream demand has weakened. The domestic supply of polyethylene has increased, and the demand for PO film is entering the peak season, but the short - term downstream procurement intention is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term downstream new orders are not expected to improve significantly [28] Agricultural Commodities - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: Affected by biodiesel policies globally, the demand for soybean crushing may increase. The supply of soybeans in Q4 is relatively sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in Q1 next year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas may affect new - season crops. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal in the medium - to - long - term [35] - Vegetable Oils: - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The US soybean oil has strengthened. The Malaysian palm oil export is strong, and the production growth is limited. The market is expected to be in a long - term bullish trend, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [36] - Rapeseed Oil & Rapeseed Meal: The crushing rate of rapeseed is low due to low inventory. The supply of new - season rapeseed is affected by weather in Canada and Australia. The market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term and may be supported by import uncertainty in the medium - term [37] - Corn: The China Grain Reserves Corporation continued to auction imported corn this week. The supply in Shandong is stable, and the inventory in ports and deep - processing enterprises is seasonally decreasing. The domestic corn market is expected to be weak at the bottom [39] - Livestock & Poultry Products: - Pigs: A 10,000 - ton central reserve of frozen pork was purchased this Monday. The supply of pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policies [40] - Eggs: The egg futures continued to increase positions significantly on Monday. The spot price may have a seasonal rebound in late August to September. The industry needs to accelerate capacity reduction, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year. Buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips is recommended [41] - Cotton: The US cotton is oscillating. The weekly signing volume of US cotton decreased. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slow. The domestic cotton market is expected to be oscillatory, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [42] - Sugar: The US sugar is oscillating. The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar sales are fast, with light inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to be oscillatory [43] - Apples: The futures price is oscillating. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the price of early - maturing apples is high but of average quality. The market is focused on the new - season output estimate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - Wood & Pulp: - Wood: The futures price is oscillating. The foreign - market quotation has rebounded for two consecutive months, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp: The pulp futures rebounded yesterday. The port inventory has increased, and the domestic demand is average. A wait - and - see or range - trading strategy is recommended [46] Financial Commodities - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market rose unilaterally yesterday, and the futures contracts of stock indexes all closed up. Shanghai introduced real - estate policies. The external market closed down at night. The domestic market's external macro - liquidity is relatively stable. An allocation strategy of increasing technology - growth sectors and paying attention to consumption and cyclical sectors is recommended [47] - Treasury Bond Futures: The market focus has shifted to the equity and commodity markets. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. The price of treasury bond futures is under pressure, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48] - Shipping Index Futures: The supply of the European - line container shipping index is expected to contract in early September and increase in late September. The freight rate is expected to decline slowly in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the low - valuation opportunity of the December contract [20]
国投期货综合晨报-20250826
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-26 06:29