光大期货农产品日报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn: The spot price of corn is weak this week compared to last week. The purchase price at the northern ports continues to decline, and the arrival of goods is limited. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises is also weak. The supply increases in the short term, and the market has a strong bearish expectation. The futures price of the near - month contract leads the decline, and the far - month contract follows. It is necessary to pay attention to the price performance of the 2511 contract at the 2150 integer mark and be vigilant against the rebound after a sharp decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell from a two - month high. The export inspection volume of US soybeans last week was 382,000 tons, and the previous week's inspection volume was revised up to 503,000 tons. The good rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the expected 67%. Brazil's soybean exports in the first four weeks of August increased by 24% year - on - year. Domestic soybean meal stopped falling and stabilized. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal of major domestic oil mills increased last week, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. The market transaction improved. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the positive spread between months [1]. - Oils and Fats: BMD palm oil fell. The export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% - 16.4% month - on - month. Indonesia urged the EU to cancel the anti - subsidy tax on imported biodiesel. Canadian canola futures closed lower. The domestic three major vegetable oils fluctuated, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil performing stronger than palm oil. The inventory pressure increased, and the demand was still weak. If the spot demand starts later, the supply - demand situation of oils and fats is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - Eggs: The main 2510 contract of eggs fluctuated and adjusted, and the 2509 contract rebounded. The spot price of eggs increased slightly. After the previous price correction, the terminal demand was slightly boosted, but most traders purchased on demand. In the future, egg demand will enter the peak season, and the egg price may have a seasonal rebound, but the rebound strength is limited due to supply pressure. The short - term market sentiment is bearish, and the futures market continues to be weak [1][2]. - Pigs: The main 2511 contract of live pigs futures closed up 0.51%. The futures price continued the range - bound market. The spot price of live pigs decreased slightly. Some large farms increased their slaughter, and the supply increased, while the demand support was general. According to the seasonal law, the demand will recover as the high - temperature weather subsides, and the pig price has support, but the abundant supply still exerts pressure on the pig price. The pig price is expected to remain volatile [2]. 3. Market Information - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 was 1,141,661 tons (ITS data), a 10.9% increase compared with the same period last month, and 1,065,005 tons (Amspec data), a 16.4% increase [3]. - The overall supply of spring plastic - film peanuts in Henan is still low, and the supply area is expected to expand at the end of August. The price may decline slightly in the short term before the large - scale listing of new peanuts. The purchase price of Henan Daza peanuts from late August to early September is expected to be between 7,800 - 8,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased this week, and the prices of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal decreased slightly. The crushing profit of imported soybeans in China declined. As of August 22, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipments was - 147~ - 115 yuan/ton on the futures market and - 57~ - 25 yuan/ton in the spot market. More than 70% of the soybeans for October shipments have been purchased, and only 10% for November [3]. - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills decreased slightly last week. As of August 22, the crushing volume was 2.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 220,000 tons, and an increase of 350,000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will remain high this week, and the crushing volume will rebound to about 2.5 million tons [3]. 4. Variety Spreads - Contract Spread: The report provides the 1 - 5 contract spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6]. - Contract Basis: The report provides the contract basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these bases is given [12][13][16].