Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 81.04 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase [1]. - The growth in performance is attributed to an increase in both sales volume and prices of aluminum products, alongside a decline in raw material costs [1]. - The domestic aluminum price showed resilience, increasing by 4.7% since the beginning of the year, with expectations for continued growth in aluminum consumption driven by sectors like new energy vehicles and construction [2]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan of at least 3 billion HKD, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects [2]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.8, 8.1, and 7.5 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 81.04 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan, marking increases of 10.1% and 35% year-on-year respectively [1]. - The sales volume for aluminum alloy products was approximately 2.906 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year, while alumina sales volume reached 6.368 million tons, up 15.6% [1]. Market Outlook - The domestic aluminum consumption is expected to reach 54.35 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46% [2]. - Key growth areas include new energy vehicles, power transmission lines, and air conditioning, which are anticipated to support aluminum consumption [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 10.53%, 7.57%, and 7.91% [4]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 8.8, 8.1, and 7.5, reflecting the company's strong position in the aluminum industry [3][4].
中国宏桥（01378）：动态跟踪报告：量价齐升助力业绩同比高增，高额回购彰显公司长期信心