铝产业链日评：国内铝土矿8月供需预期偏松国内电解铝社会库存量环比增加-20250826

Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250826: The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in August are expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased month-on-month [1] Core Viewpoints - The price increase space of alumina is limited due to the rising production cost and the loose supply-demand expectation; it is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the pressure level around 3300 - 3600 [2] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously bullish due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August, the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning to the peak season, and the low domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum; it is recommended that investors go long on the main contract at low positions, focusing on the support level around 20200 - 20400 and the pressure level around 21000 - 21500, and for LME aluminum, the support level around 2300 - 2500 and the pressure level around 2700 - 2800 [2] - The price of aluminum alloy may be cautiously bullish due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August and the tight supply of scrap aluminum; it is recommended that investors short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, focusing on the support level around 19800 - 20000 and the pressure level around 20300 - 20500 [2] Data Summary Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract of Shanghai aluminum futures on August 25, 2025, was 20770, up 140 from the previous day; the trading volume was 146160 lots, up 11586; the open interest was 248343 lots, up 11056; the inventory was 56670 tons, down 474 [2] - The SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20780, up 70; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 10, down 70; the spread between the nearby and far - month contracts showed different changes [2] Alumina Futures - The closing price of alumina futures on August 25, 2025, was 3184, up 46; the trading volume was 455135 lots, up 182961; the open interest was 193845 lots, up 10870; the inventory was 83132 tons, up 5386 [2] - The basis was 57.72, down 49.15; the spreads between different contract months also had corresponding changes [2] London Aluminum - The closing price of the LME 3 - month aluminum futures (electronic trading) on August 22, 2025, was 9796.5, up 72; the LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was - 78.38, up 2.63; the 3 - 15 month contract spread was - 158.98, up 12.64; the Shanghai - London aluminum price ratio was 7.8680, down 0.07 [2] Industry News - Anhui Wufang Electromechanical Co., Ltd. is investing 2 billion yuan to build an 80,000 - ton aluminum casting new energy green casting project in Bengbu High - tech Zone, with a phased construction plan [2] - Huafeng Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to jointly invest 210 million yuan with an affiliated company to establish Xinjiang Huafeng New Material Technology Co., Ltd., aiming to build a 4 - million - square - meter high - voltage formed foil production line in two phases [2] - India's National Aluminium Company (NALCO) plans to invest 171.63 billion Indian rupees to increase the smelter's annual capacity by 500,000 tons, 120 billion rupees to increase power generation capacity by 1080 MW, and other investment plans to expand alumina and bauxite production [2] - Dumining Group's Inner Mongolia Huodu New Material Co., Ltd. has put its first - phase 300,000 - ton new carbon anode project into production, with subsequent expansion plans [2] Supply and Demand Analysis Bauxite - Some mines in Shanxi and Henan have not resumed production; Guinea has revoked the licenses of 6 bauxite enterprises, and a new company has taken over a mining right; a bauxite project in China is under construction; the domestic bauxite price has changed, and the supply - demand expectation in August is loose [2] Alumina - The operating rate and production of Chinese alumina have decreased; some domestic alumina projects are under construction or planned to be put into production, which may increase the production in August; the import volume may decrease, and the port inventory has decreased [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - Some overseas electrolytic aluminum projects have production plans; the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level [2]