月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘埃落定，9月剑指重启降息？-20250826

Trade Policy Insights - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has significantly decreased following agreements with major trading partners like Japan and the EU, with new tariff rates announced on July 31[5] - The new tariff framework categorizes countries into three groups, with tariffs ranging from 10% to over 50%, depending on trade agreements and trade balances with the U.S.[5] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is conducting up to 8 ongoing "Section 232 investigations," which could lead to additional tariffs on sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals[6] Economic Data Overview - The U.S. core CPI inflation rate slightly increased in July, but the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is still emerging, with expectations that the influence will be less than previously anticipated[2] - Non-farm payroll data showed a weaker performance in July, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly below the market expectation of 104,000[13] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July, indicating potential labor market weakness[13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts in September, with predictions of two additional 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year[3] - The potential for a 50 basis point rate cut is being considered, influenced by recent economic data trends[3] Currency and Market Predictions - The U.S. dollar index is projected to continue depreciating, with a year-end target of 95, reflecting concerns over economic momentum and labor market data[37] - The dollar index fell by 2.3% from the end of July to August 22, with significant declines against the euro, yen, and pound[36]