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雪峰科技(603227):疆内民爆能化引领者,宏大入主产业共振在即
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-26 07:44

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the "civil explosives + energy chemicals" sector in Xinjiang, with a strong market presence and potential for growth due to the acquisition by Guangdong Hongda [6][7]. - The integration of civil explosive capacity and the growth of mining services are expected to drive long-term growth, with a focus on the western region and international expansion [6][7]. - The scarcity of ammonium nitrate in Xinjiang and the potential convergence of domestic and international urea prices are highlighted as key factors influencing the company's performance [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 65.82 billion, 76.65 billion, and 86.13 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.45 billion, 8.20 billion, and 10.35 billion CNY [2][7]. - The company is expected to experience a net profit CAGR of 16% over the next three years, with a PE ratio of approximately 13 in 2026, which is below the average PE of comparable companies [7][8]. Business Segments - The company operates in two main segments: civil explosives and energy chemicals, with a focus on creating a circular economy through its integrated supply chain [18][21]. - The civil explosives segment includes a comprehensive range of services, while the energy chemicals segment is bolstered by the production of ammonium nitrate and other chemical products [25][34]. Market Dynamics - The civil explosives industry is characterized by high barriers to entry and regional market dynamics, with a significant focus on safety and regulatory compliance [46][48]. - The report notes that the industry is undergoing consolidation, with a push towards higher concentration and integration among leading firms [53][54]. Growth Catalysts - Key growth drivers include increased demand for civil explosives due to coal mining activities in Xinjiang, accelerated asset injections from Guangdong Hongda, and rising prices for ammonium nitrate and urea [10][6].