Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US/9868.HK) [2][8] - The target price for Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US) is raised to $27.4, representing a potential upside of 15% [2][4] - The target price for Xiaopeng Motors-W (9868.HK) is raised to HKD 106.9, representing a potential upside of 16% [5][8] Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors is entering a new product strength cycle, with models like MONA, P7+, G6, G9, and G7 driving sales growth and margin improvement [8] - The company expects to achieve breakeven in Q4 2025, supported by strong sales and improving gross margins [8] - The guidance for Q3 2025 indicates a median sales volume of 115,500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 148% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Xiaopeng Motors from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30,676 million - 2024: RMB 40,866 million (33% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 76,780 million (88% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 105,987 million (38% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 141,072 million (33% YoY growth) [3][12] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 1.5% in 2023 to 17.9% in 2027 [3][12] - Net loss is projected to decrease from RMB 10,376 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 4,206 million by 2027 [3][12] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 2.2x for automotive sales and 5.0x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of $27.4 for Xiaopeng Motors [8][16] - The target price for Xiaopeng Motors-W is derived similarly, resulting in HKD 106.9 [8][16] Recent Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported revenue of RMB 18,274 million, a 125% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of RMB 3,167 million [11] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 17.3%, up from 14.0% in Q2 2024 [11] - Vehicle sales volume reached 103,181 units in Q2 2025, a 242% increase year-on-year [11]
小鹏汽车-w（09868）：汽车毛利率持续改善，预期四季度实现盈亏平衡