商品期货早班车-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased significantly. It is recommended to go long on gold and temporarily exit and wait and see for silver [1]. - For base metals, it is advisable to buy copper at dips, go long on aluminum at dips, and if holding alumina spot, one can sell call options opportunistically. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see, while for lithium carbonate, short - term wait - and - see is advised, and then go long with a small position after stabilization or buy call options when volatility declines. For polysilicon, one can try to go long lightly on dips. For tin, it is recommended to buy at dips [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to wait and see on the margin for steel products, try to short the rebar 2510 contract, wait and see mainly for iron ore, and try to short the coking coal 2601 contract [4][5]. - In the agricultural product market, for soybean meal, it is recommended to follow the international cost - end and oscillate strongly, paying attention to tariff policies. For corn, wait and see after continuous decline. For sugar, go short in the futures market and sell call options. For cotton, buy at dips and use an oscillating strategy in the 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton range. For palm oil, it is still bullish on oils, but trading becomes more difficult after valuation increases. For eggs and live pigs, wait and see. For apples, wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, for LLDPE, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and go short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads on the month - spread at high prices in the long - term. For PVC, wait and see. For PTA, wait and see in the short - term after taking profit on PX, and go short on the processing fee of far - month contracts at high prices. For rubber, hold long positions. For glass, wait and see. For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and go short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads on the month - spread at high prices in the long - term. For MEG, go short at high prices and pay attention to peak - season orders. For crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. For styrene, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, go short on far - month contracts or short the styrene profit at high prices. For soda ash, wait and see. For caustic soda, go long [8][9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: On Monday, precious metal prices oscillated as the market gradually digested Powell's speech. Trump's administration is considering sanctioning EU officials due to the digital service law. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small outflow. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1199 tons, and SHFE gold inventory remained at 37 tons. London's July gold inventory was 8774 tons. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - Silver: SHFE silver inventory increased by 4 tons to 1113 tons, SGE silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1289 tons last week, COMEX silver inventory increased by 7 tons to 15823 tons, and London's July silver inventory increased by 408 tons to 24196 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares, increased by 11 tons to 15288 tons. It is recommended to temporarily exit and wait and see [1]. 3.2 Base Metals - Copper: Yesterday, copper prices oscillated strongly. The market was still trading on Powell's dovish speech on Friday. The domestic equity market was still hot, and market risk appetite was high. The premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was 100 yuan and 30 yuan respectively, and the weekly inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons. It is recommended to buy at dips [2]. - Aluminum: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.65% to 20785 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2622 US dollars/ton. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly. It is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at dips [2]. - Alumina: Yesterday, the closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.47% to 3184 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 75 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina was stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. Bauxite supply is sufficient, alumina capacity remains high, inventory is continuously released, and the spot price is under downward pressure, but the cost support increases. It is expected that the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and if holding spot, one can sell call options opportunistically [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply side saw 1 new furnace opened last week in the country, and the resumption rhythm in the northwest region was less than expected due to raw material supply issues. Social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon maintained a slight increase, the output of silicone decreased month - on - month due to the decline in industrial chain prices, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season, with a relatively stable start - up rate. The trading logic is centered around the "anti - involution" varieties, and the production plan in Xinjiang should be focused on. The disk is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9200, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: Yesterday, the main contract LC2511 closed at 79,380 yuan/ton (+420), up 0.5%. The CIF price of Australian spodumene was 920 US dollars/ton (+0), the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 82,500 (-1400) yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to +3340 yuan/ton. Last week's weekly output was 19138 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica decreased by 1250 tons, and the contract production of lithium carbonate from spodumene continued to increase, but the growth rate weakened and was gradually unable to cover the supply gap of lithium carbonate from lithium mica. In August, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials was evident, and the bidding capacity of the energy storage system in July had a bright growth rate. This week's sample inventory was 14.15 million tons, with a destocking of 713 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and then go long with a small position after stabilization or buy call options when volatility declines [3]. - Polysilicon: On Monday, the main contract closed at 51580 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 5547 lots to 289125 lots. Today, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 111 lots to 50938 lots. Last week's weekly output increased slightly, and the output in August is expected to increase by about 20% month - on - month. The growth rate of warehouse receipts slowed down last week, and the industry inventory decreased significantly. On the demand side, the prices of downstream products fluctuated little. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in August met expectations, basically flat compared with July. The photovoltaic installation demand market in the third quarter is relatively pessimistic, and the newly - added photovoltaic installation in July decreased by 47.6% year - on - year. It is recommended to try to go long lightly on dips [3]. - Tin: Yesterday, tin prices oscillated strongly. The market was still trading on Powell's dovish speech on Friday. The domestic equity market was still hot, and market risk appetite was high. Domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 21 tons, and the premium of domestic deliverable brands was 300 - 600 yuan. Spot trading was light. It is recommended to buy at dips [3]. 3.3 Black Industry - Rebar: The rebar main 2510 contract oscillated weakly and closed at 3130 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The rebar inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 4.9% week - on - week to 464 million tons, and increased by 6.1% last week. The rebar delivery in Hangzhou over the weekend was 6.8 million tons, 6.6 million tons last week; the inventory was 82.8 million tons, 76.7 million tons last week, and 75.7 million tons in the same period last year. The supply and demand of building materials are moderately weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The previous good profits led to an increase in supply, and the inventory of building materials increased rapidly; the demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain at a high level, and the absolute inventory and inventory days remain at the lowest level in history. Overall, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, with no significant total contradiction, but obvious structural differentiation. The futures discount of rebar remains slightly high, and the futures structure of hot - rolled coils has turned to flat water, and the valuation has been continuously improved. It is recommended to wait and see on the margin and try to short the rebar 2510 contract [4][5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore main 2601 contract oscillated weakly and closed at 783.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Steel Union caliber increased by 4 million tons to 2760 million tons week - on - week, compared with 150 million tons in the same period last year. The arrival of iron ore decreased by 241 million tons to 2462 million tons week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 209 million tons. The port inventory decreased by 56 million tons to 1.44 billion tons week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 1419 million tons. The supply and demand of iron ore remained moderately strong, but the margin was slightly weaker. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased week - on - week and increased by 7% year - on - year. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the eighth round has been proposed. The profit of steel mills has shrunk marginally, and the subsequent output will be mainly stable; the supply side conforms to the seasonal law, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong on the margin, and due to the high base of molten iron demand, it is expected that the subsequent inventory build - up of iron ore will be slower than the seasonal law. Iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period in history, and the valuation is neutral. It is recommended to wait and see mainly [5]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal main 2601 contract oscillated upward and closed at 1214.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 0.1 million tons to 240.8 million tons week - on - week, a year - on - year increase of 16.3 million tons. The profit of steel mills has shrunk marginally, and the subsequent output will be mainly stable. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the eighth round has been proposed. The inventories at various links on the supply side are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants remain at the lowest level in the same period in history, while the inventories at links such as mine mouths, ports, and terminals continue to remain at a high level in history. At the same time, the output and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month, and the overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are improving month - on - month. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to try to short the coking coal 2601 contract [5]. 3.4 Agricultural Product Market - Soybean Meal: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell. On the supply side, the near - term output of US soybeans has shrunk due to a significant reduction in area, while the yield per unit is expected to be good, and the high - frequency weekly good - to - excellent rate is good; in the long - term, South America is expected to increase production, with a slight year - on - year increase overall. On the demand side, demand in South America is gradually decreasing, shifting to US soybeans, but there are still differences in the export demand for new - crop US soybeans, depending on tariff policies. In the short - term, US soybeans are strong, trading on supply contraction, but it is only a quantitative change. Domestic soybean arrivals are high in stages, and high - frequency demand also remains at a high level. It is recommended to follow the international cost - end and oscillate strongly, paying attention to tariff policies [6]. - Corn: The corn 2511 contract continued to be weak, and the corn spot price fell. Wheat has high cost - effectiveness and substitutes for corn in feed demand. The weak wheat price suppresses the corn price. The auction of imported grains increases market supply, and the low transaction rate reflects weak market sentiment. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The easing of the trade situation increases import expectations, early - spring corn is about to be listed, and the cost of new - crop corn has decreased significantly, suppressing long - term price expectations. The corn spot price is expected to run weakly. It is recommended to wait and see after continuous decline [6]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5680 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processed and taxed after the out - of - quota was 436 yuan/ton. Internationally, Brazil's output is still the dominant factor for raw sugar. Pay attention to Brazil's bi - weekly output data. Currently, Brazil is the main reason for pressuring raw sugar, and high production is gradually being realized. Domestically, last week, imported sugar significantly pressured the spot price in the sales area, leading to a lower quotation, but this week, the spot price has shown a stabilizing trend, indicating the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rebounded slightly and will be in a weak oscillation later, and will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - Cotton: Overnight, the US cotton futures price oscillated and fell, and the US dollar index strengthened significantly. Internationally, as of the week ending August 24, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton dropped to 54%, down from the previous week. The auction reserve price of India's Cotton Corporation S - 6 was stable at 55400 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 81.05 cents/pound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, and the market continued to focus on the tight spot situation. Yesterday, it was officially announced that 200,000 tons of sliding - scale duty - processing trade quotas would be issued, the same as last year. It is recommended to buy at dips and use an oscillating strategy in the 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton range [7]. - Palm Oil: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil fell. On the supply side, the producing areas are still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the MPOA daily Malaysian palm oil output increased by 3% month - on - month; on the demand side, it is estimated that from August 1 - 20, the situation in the producing areas has improved, and the ITS estimated that the Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% month - on - month. Overall, the background is one of increasing supply and demand, with near - term inventory accumulation continuing and long - term expectations being tight. Oils are still bullish, but trading becomes more difficult after valuation increases. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - Eggs: The egg 2510 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. High temperatures have led to a seasonal decline in the laying rate of laying hens, and downstream food factories are gradually stocking up, so demand may increase seasonally. There are many newly - laid hens, and the willingness to cull old hens is not strong. Cold - storage egg inventory is high, and supply is sufficient. Low vegetable prices suppress demand, and low feed prices have lowered the cost center. It is recommended to wait and see after continuous decline [7]. - Live Pigs: The live pig 2511 contract oscillated narrowly, and the live pig spot price fell slightly. Consumption is gradually recovering. The previous slaughter progress was slow, and the slaughter in August increased. In addition, group farms continued to reduce the