两广油脂市场调研：弱现实强预期，油脂价格重心预计上移

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Palm oil: Bullish [1] - Soybean oil: Bullish [1] - Rapeseed oil: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Most enterprises are bullish on the fourth - quarter to first - quarter (next year) oil market, mainly due to supply - side factors. However, some enterprises are cautious about the bullish view, considering factors such as high domestic inventory, low consumption, and potential imports [4][16]. - The key factors to watch include downstream consumption recovery, the crushing situation after Australian rapeseed arrives, and the purchase of US soybeans [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Background and Purpose - The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian bilateral trade situations are uncertain. As of now, there is no news of China purchasing US soybeans, and the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has blocked its arrival from September to December. The supply of soy and rapeseed in the fourth quarter is not optimistic. The research aims to understand the current market situation, procurement, and import conditions [11]. 3.2. Research Summary Rapeseed oil - National rapeseed oil inventory is sufficient, with high pressure in inland areas like Sichuan and Chongqing. Most oil mills' rapeseed inventory is depleted, and some pressing lines are shut down. The de - stocking speed is slow, and the degree of de - stocking in the fourth quarter depends on consumption [14]. - Domestic rapeseed oil consumption is extremely poor, mainly for rigid demand. After the start of school and approaching festivals, consumption may improve [14]. Soybean oil - Spot - end soybean oil inventory is sufficient, and there will be a large amount of soybean arrivals in September and October. Some oil mills may shut down due to full - capacity of soybean meal. If no US soybeans are purchased this year, there may be a shortage from January to March next year. After the start of school, demand may improve [15]. 3.3. Market Outlook - Most enterprises are bullish on the oil market from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, as soybean and rapeseed oil will de - stock in the fourth quarter, and the shortage in the first quarter of next year is difficult to make up. However, some enterprises are cautious, considering factors such as imports of rapeseed oil and Australian rapeseed [16]. 3.4. Research Content August 19th Morning - Enterprise A - It is a trading enterprise mainly engaged in soybean and rapeseed oil trade. It purchases raw materials from nearby companies and oil mills [17]. - The sales area of Guangxi's rapeseed oil is mainly Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan. The enterprise is bullish on the 2025 soybean oil market, believes in focusing on macro news, and thinks rapeseed oil may be a strong variety in the fourth quarter [18][19]. August 19th Morning - Enterprise B - It is a trading enterprise mainly engaged in rapeseed meal and soybean meal trade, with a total annual trading volume of 120 - 130 tons [20]. - It mainly purchases rapeseed meal from domestic oil mills. The substitution between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is affected by price difference. Rapeseed meal demand is seasonal. The soybean meal market has sufficient supply. Key factors to watch include anti - dumping policies and Sino - US negotiations [21][23]. August 19th Afternoon - Enterprise C - It is mainly engaged in the trade of soybean, rapeseed, and cottonseed oil, with a trading volume of about 300,000 tons. It serves customers in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing [24]. - In the soybean oil market, supply was tight from February to April this year, and consumption was weak from June to August. In the rapeseed oil market, port inventory is low, and consumption is mostly replaced. If Sino - US negotiations fail, there may be a shortage of soybeans from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Rapeseed pressing volume may decline [25][27]. August 20th Morning - Enterprise D - It has a daily rapeseed pressing capacity of 2000 tons and a daily refining capacity of 600 tons. It is currently short of rapeseed and may switch to soybean pressing. The de - stocking progress of rapeseed and soybean oil in the fourth quarter depends on domestic consumption [29][32]. August 20th Morning - Enterprise E - It has three pressing lines. It is currently pressing soybeans with a capacity utilization rate of 50 - 60%, and the rapeseed line is shut down. It is concerned about the import of Australian rapeseed. It does not think there will be a supply problem in the fourth quarter, but there may be a gap in March [34][36]. August 20th Afternoon - Enterprise F - Its daily pressing capacity is 11,000 tons. The soybean pressing line is fully operational, and the rapeseed line is shut down. It has three ships of new - season Australian rapeseed with uncertain plans. Rapeseed oil is mostly for rigid demand, and soybean oil is under less pressure. After the start of school, consumption will improve, but there is obvious consumption downgrading [37][39]. August 21st Morning - Enterprise G - Its daily soybean pressing capacity is 5000 tons, and it also has other production capacities. It mainly purchases Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. It expects a soybean supply gap in February - March next year and high soybean meal inventory after September [41][44]. August 21st Morning - Enterprise H - It is mainly engaged in oil packaging, with a planned annual capacity of 200,000 tons. The consumption in different regions has different preferences. This year's sales volume has decreased, and the downstream procurement is more cautious. Palm oil demand has decreased, and the overall oil demand is stable but lacks growth [46][49]. August 22nd Morning - Enterprise I - It has various production capacities, including peanut, wheat, and planned soybean pressing. It mainly purchases oil raw materials from domestic oil mills. It is bullish on the short - term oil market and expects soybean meal to be weak for a long time [50][54].