周度经济观察：内外因素共振，市场上涨或未完-20250826

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, a significant rise of 3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest monthly growth this year[4] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% year-on-year, up 4 percentage points from last month, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%, a decline of 9.2 percentage points[4] - Government fund revenue in July decreased by 11 percentage points to 9.4% year-on-year, while land transfer revenue dropped by 14.6 percentage points to 7.0%[12] Group 2: Market Trends - The equity market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high[14] - Macro factors supporting the market include active credit creation, a shift from safe to risk assets, and a weak dollar environment[15] - The market is not yet at unsustainable levels, as indicated by trading volume and retail investor participation[14] Group 3: U.S. Monetary Policy - Fed Chair Powell's recent dovish comments have increased market expectations for rate cuts in September and December, with an anticipated total reduction of approximately 54 basis points[23] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points, indicating economic resilience despite inflationary pressures[20]