Xinda Securities·2025-08-26 08:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant improvements in beer cost management, leading to stable profit growth. The company achieved a revenue of 239.42 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.83%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57.89 billion RMB, up 23.04% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Beer Business Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported beer revenue of 240.75 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.69%, with sales volume reaching 6.487 million kiloliters, up 2.19% year-on-year. The high-end product segment showed steady growth, with revenue per kiloliter increasing by 4.4% year-on-year. Notably, sales of premium and above beers grew by over 10%, Heineken sales surged by over 20%, and sales of Snow Beer increased by over 70% [2] - Regional performance showed that the East region generated 112.92 billion RMB in revenue, up 3.05% year-on-year; the Central region achieved 66.27 billion RMB, up 2.11%; and the South region reached 61.56 billion RMB, up 1.95% [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The company experienced continuous cost improvements, with a gross margin of 48.88%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points year-on-year. The beer business gross margin rose by 2.50 percentage points to 48.3%. The overall selling expense ratio decreased by 2.03 percentage points to 15.62% [2] - The EBITDA for the beer business in H1 2025 was 72.41 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.76%, with an EBITDA margin of 30.08%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year. Excluding one-time impacts, the EBITDA margin would have been 31.08% [2] White Spirit Business Performance - The white spirit segment faced challenges, with revenue declining to 7.83 billion RMB, down 33.53% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced business banquet demand. The segment reported an EBITDA loss of 1.52 billion RMB [2] Earnings Forecast and Dividend Policy - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.93 RMB, 1.97 RMB, and 2.09 RMB, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 14, 13, and 13 times based on the closing price of 26.29 RMB per share on August 25, 2025. The company plans to maintain a dividend of 0.464 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 26.07%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.34 percentage points [2][3]