Changjiang Securities·2025-08-26 08:54Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [13]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in China's soft drink industry, effectively driving price inflation in the beverage sector through high-quality, high-priced products, thereby creating substantial profits for upstream suppliers and distributors [4]. - The company has shown resilience in overcoming negative public sentiment and is expected to gradually increase its market share and influence [4]. - The company has established a dual-engine development strategy focusing on packaged water and beverages, leading to rapid revenue and profit growth from 17.5 billion RMB in 2017 to 42.7 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 16% for revenue and 24% for net profit [7][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Layout - The company has strategically positioned itself in the health-oriented beverage market, launching natural water during the pure water era and sugar-free tea during the sugar tea trend, effectively extending its industrial chain [8]. - It has invested in 15 water sources nationwide, reducing transportation costs and enhancing supply chain stability by supporting local farmers [8]. Product Marketing - The company prioritizes quality in its marketing strategy, avoiding price wars and focusing on premium positioning, which has led to significant growth in its sugar-free tea brand "Oriental Leaf" [9]. - Effective advertising and event marketing have strengthened brand recognition, with slogans like "Nongfu Spring is a bit sweet" resonating with consumers [9]. Channel Management - The company has evolved its distribution model from joint ventures to exclusive distributors, ensuring profitability for distributors and enhancing loyalty [10]. - It employs a dual-channel strategy, focusing on large distributors while supporting smaller ones, which has improved overall channel efficiency [10]. Future Outlook - Despite facing challenges in 2024 due to public relations issues, the company is actively engaging in market recovery efforts and is expected to regain market share by 2025 [11]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 49.8 billion RMB, 55.7 billion RMB, and 61.2 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.5 billion RMB, 16.6 billion RMB, and 18.6 billion RMB [11].