瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the supply - side pressure of US soybeans still exists, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. In the domestic market, the relatively high oil - mill operating rate and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the rapeseed meal price, while the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand support it. The overall rapeseed meal market is in a strong - side shock, and a bullish view is maintained [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the increase in Canada's rapeseed production and inventory, along with China's anti - dumping measures, may put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain the price, but low oil - mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The rapeseed oil market shows a narrow - range shock and is recommended to be participated in with a bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Rapeseed oil: The futures closing price of the active contract is 9821 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread is 167 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The main - contract position is 290274 lots, down 1009 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5402 lots, down 963 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed meal: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2526 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread is 63 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The main - contract position is 432019 lots, up 9503 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10950 lots, down 6068 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 7987, down 79 [2]. - ICE rapeseed: The futures closing price of the active contract is 660.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.6 Canadian dollars [2]. - Rapeseed: The futures closing price of the active contract is 4857 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price is 10045 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 89 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 74 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed: The spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Substitute products: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9470 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import cost of rapeseed is 8191.22 yuan/ton, down 155.75 yuan/ton. The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, up 0.85% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 0.05 tons, up 0.05 tons [2]. - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.5 tons, up 2.1 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 27.03 tons, down 0.45 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 53.6 tons, down 0.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 32.86 tons, down 0.73 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 4.9 tons, down 0.1 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 21.4 tons, down 0.4 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.81 tons, down 0.95 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 tons, down 0.45 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons; the monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Rapeseed meal: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20%, down 0.89%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.99%, down 0.9%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 32.42%, up 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.71%, down 0.4% [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.32%, down 0.07%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.32%, down 0.08%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 17.48%, down 2.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.4%, down 0.45% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On Monday, the Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose first and then fell, with the benchmark contract down 1.07%, following the decline of Chicago soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures. The Pro Farmer report predicts that the average yield of US soybeans will reach a record - high of 53.0 bushels per acre, and the total output is expected to be 4.246 billion bushels [2].