瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has cooled, the mainstream positions have reduced long positions, and the steel market is intertwined with multiple and short factors, so the market may fluctuate. Technically, for the HC2510 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that the rebound of DIFF and DEA is under pressure, and the red column is shrinking. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the position volume is 899,991 lots, down 38,254 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 69,010 lots, down 14,157 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,855 tons, down 894 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 254 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,430 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 63 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 774 yuan/wet ton, down 7 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 3,020 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 13,845.20 tons, up 25.93 tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 39.38 tons, up 0.33 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 609.69 tons, down 0.09 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 116.09 tons, up 3.57 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.27%, up 0.03%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 325.24 tons, up 9.65 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 83.08%, up 2.46%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 78.89 tons, down 1.09 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 282.55 tons, up 5.06 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 7,966 tons, down 353 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 939 tons, up 18 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 259.11 million vehicles, down 20.30 million vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 259.34 million vehicles, down 31.11 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 2,059.65 million units, down 778.66 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 873.07 million units, down 31.68 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 877.43 million units, down 73.36 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - August, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 2.115 million tons, a 2.0% increase from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.67 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous period. From August 18th to August 24th, global shipyards received 16 + 4 new ship orders, among which Chinese shipyards received 8+3 orders, and South Korean shipyards received 6 orders [2]