Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-26 09:45Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening, and it is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. Although the price is supported by costs and policies, the upside space is limited by the downstream acceptance, and it is likely to continue to show a volatile trend. The demand for industrial silicon has started to decline steadily, but the supply has also decreased, and the overall situation remains volatile. Polysilicon continued to decline today, and there is still room for further decline. If it subsequently breaks below 49,500, it is recommended to gradually reduce short positions, and after the sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be established. The operation suggestion is to wait and see for now or to arrange put options [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,985 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 137,478 lots, up 677 lots; the price difference between polysilicon contracts 11 - 12 is -2,380 yuan, unchanged; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,470 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 49,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is -1,985 yuan/ton, up 595 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - grade polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - grade polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,515 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 333,200 tons, up 8,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 105,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.46 US dollars/kg, up 0.16 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, down 1,004,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, up 21,456,820 units; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 units, up 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/unit, down 0.02 US dollars; the polysilicon sub - index of the photovoltaic industry composite price index (SPI) is 28.48, up 0.62 [2] Industry News - Today, the China Fluorosilicone and Organic Silicone Materials Industry Association in Lanzhou held an "anti - involution" meeting. In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, the weekly output of polysilicon has climbed, and it is expected that the output in August will increase. If the "production and sales restrictions" are implemented in September, the monthly output may remain flat month - on - month. However, from the current situation, the previously ramping - up production bases in the southwest are at full capacity, and although some northwest enterprises have started and stopped production, the overall output still shows an increasing trend [2]