Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-26 09:42Project Category Futures Market - Zhengzhou urea main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1737, down 8 [2] - Zhengzhou urea 1 - 5 spread (daily, yuan/ton): -40, up 4 [2] - Zhengzhou urea main contract open interest (daily, lots): 219820, down 3120 [2] - Zhengzhou urea top 20 net positions: -36223, up 1257 [2] - Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 5123, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Hebei (daily, yuan/ton): 1730, down 40 [2] - Henan (daily, yuan/ton): 1710, down 40 [2] - Jiangsu (daily, yuan/ton): 1710, down 30 [2] - Shandong (daily, yuan/ton): 1700, unchanged [2] - Anhui (daily, yuan/ton): 1730, down 30 [2] - Zhengzhou urea main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): -37, up 8 [2] - FOB Baltic Sea (daily, US dollars/ton): 445, unchanged [2] - FOB China's main port (daily, US dollars/ton): 447.5, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory (weekly, 10,000 tons): 50.1, up 3.7 [2] - Enterprise inventory (weekly, 10,000 tons): 102.39, up 6.65 [2] - Urea enterprise operating rate (weekly, %): 83.99, up 0.77 [2] - Urea daily output (weekly, tons): 194400, up 1700 [2] - Urea export volume (10,000 tons, %): 57, up 50 [2] - Urea production: monthly value (monthly, tons): 6052080, up 20740 [2] Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer operating rate (weekly, %): 40.84, down 2.64 [2] - Melamine operating rate (weekly, %): 46.6, down 3.22 [2] - Weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China (weekly, yuan/ton): 131, up 15 [2] - Weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea (weekly, yuan/ton): -126, down 48 [2] - Compound fertilizer production: monthly value (monthly, 10,000 tons): 422.12, up 5.3 [2] - Melamine production: total weekly value (weekly, tons): 23200, down 1600 [2] Industry News - As of August 20, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons from last week, a 6.95% week - on - week increase [2] - As of August 21, China's urea port sample inventory was 50.1 tons, up 3.7 tons week - on - week, a 7.97% increase [2] - As of August 21, China's urea production enterprise output was 136.11 tons, up 1.25 tons from the previous period, a 0.93% week - on - week increase; capacity utilization was 83.99%, up 0.77% from the previous period, showing a slight upward trend [2] Viewpoint Summary - Due to recent restarts of some plants, domestic urea daily output has slightly increased. Considering short - term enterprise breakdowns, the probability of reduced production is high [2] - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. Industrial compound fertilizer is mainly for phased replenishment, with a decline in enterprise operating rate. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, compound fertilizer capacity utilization is expected to decline slightly, reducing the rigid demand for urea [2] - Domestic demand is weak. Although a few urea enterprises are supported by export orders and breakdowns, overall enterprise inventory is still on the rise. Short - term export news is favorable for reducing urea enterprise inventory, but the decline may be limited due to enterprise purchase restrictions and slow growth in domestic demand [2] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1760 in the short term [2] Prompt Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]