Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - After two consecutive weeks of adjustment in the bond market since mid - August, the decline has exceeded the previous round in late July, resulting in a certain degree of cost - effectiveness. Currently, the strategy should prioritize liquidity. There are opportunities in 3 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds after adjustment, and it is also advisable to participate in the sinking of weak - quality urban investment bonds with a maturity of 1 - 3 years. However, the ultra - long - term strategy may not be a good choice due to high market uncertainty [3][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Adjustment and Bond Performance - Since mid - August, the bond market has been continuously adjusting for two weeks, especially last week's adjustment exceeding expectations. Credit bonds declined synchronously, and the decline of major maturity varieties was higher than that of interest rates. The stock - bond "seesaw" effect continued, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, and the bond market being insensitive to fundamental indicators, resulting in a continuous decline and rising yields [1][9] - From August 18 to 22, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y treasury bonds increased by 0.4BP, 3.2BP, 9.7BP, 8.1BP, and 3.8BP respectively. The yields of AAA medium - and short - term notes with the same maturities increased by 4.9BP, 6.6BP, 5.8BP, 7.6BP, and 4.6BP respectively, and the yields of AA+ medium - and short - term notes increased by 4.9BP, 6.6BP, 7.8BP, 6.6BP, and 5.6BP respectively [9][10] - The market of ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened synchronously, with most of the declines exceeding those of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The decline of highly liquid ultra - long - term secondary and perpetual bonds was the lowest, while the decline of ultra - long - term urban investment bonds with the poorest liquidity was relatively large. The yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term notes increased by 6.00BP and 7.00BP respectively, and the yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment bonds increased by 13.01BP and 11.00BP respectively. The yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds increased by 6.69BP, while the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased by 3.53BP [11][12] 2. Performance of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds - The market of secondary and perpetual bonds weakened synchronously, but the "volatility amplifier" feature was not obvious. The declines of 1Y - 5Y were similar to those of general credit bonds, and the decline gap in the ultra - long - term part was also close to that of ultra - long - term credit bonds. Currently, the part of the curve with a maturity of 3 years and above is still 25BP - 35BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, the yield points of bonds with a maturity of over 3 years have reached new highs, and the adjustment amplitude is higher than that of the sharp decline at the end of July [2][16] - In terms of active trading, the sentiment was the most pessimistic in the second week of August. Although the market was still adjusting last week, the marginal sentiment of secondary and perpetual bonds improved. From August 11 to 15, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of secondary and perpetual bonds was 5.00%, 0.00%, 100.00%, 5.00%, and 0.00% respectively, and the average trading duration was 0.74 years, 1.02 years, 3.81 years, 1.53 years, and 1.12 years respectively. From August 18 to 22, the proportion of low - valuation transactions was 0.00%, 100.00%, 17.07%, 100.00%, and 100.00% respectively, and the average trading duration was 0.65 years, 4.73 years, 1.03 years, 5.66 years, and 3.30 years respectively [2][18] 3. Institutional Behavior - Public funds and other trading desks continued to sell, but it was more of a portfolio rebalancing rather than a full - scale reduction. At the same time, allocation desks such as wealth management and insurance institutions moderately bought during the adjustment. Public funds reduced their holdings of secondary bonds of national and joint - stock banks with a maturity of 3 - 5 years, with the total selling scale in the past two weeks approaching 20 billion, but they also increased their holdings of secondary capital bonds with a maturity of 1 - 3 years. Public funds were not very willing to sell their core assets such as weak - quality urban investment bonds [3][29] - Allocation desks such as bank wealth management and insurance institutions bought opportunistically after the sharp decline in the bond market, but they were also cautious about the maturity, mainly focusing on varieties with a maturity of 3 years and below. Since August, the increase in the liability side of wealth management products has been limited, and the demand is not strong, but it is not a full - scale redemption [3][29] 4. Performance of Credit Bond ETF Products - Credit bond ETF products performed poorly during the market adjustment in the past two weeks, with weak scale growth and net - value performance. In terms of scale change, the weekly scale of credit benchmark market - making ETF products has shrunk for two consecutive weeks since the market adjustment in the second week of August, and the weekly scale of science and technology innovation ETF products has been significantly weaker in August than in July. In terms of unit net - value change, the unit net values of the above two types of credit bond ETFs have suffered losses for two consecutive weeks, and the loss scale increased last week. In addition, the average turnover rate of the above two types of credit bond ETFs dropped to a new low last week [33]
信用周报:调整后,如何抓住信用的机会?-20250826
China Post Securities·2025-08-26 09:41