Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-26 09:41Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the strengthening of the US dollar, the ICE cotton futures price closed lower. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with a tight supply before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price is firm. [2] - The total quota of China's 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade is 200,000 tons, which puts short - term pressure on the cotton main contract futures price. [2] - On the demand side, although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are certain expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season. The start - up rate of some previously shut - down enterprises has slightly increased. [2] - In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops. [2] - Overall, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. In the medium term, the price is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 57,567 hands, down 3,023 hands; main contract holdings of cotton: 508,064 hands, up 3,455 hands; cotton warehouse receipts: 6,977 sheets, down 127 sheets; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B): 15,334 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff): 13,610 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty): 14,367 yuan/ton. [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,130 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 516 hands, up 193 hands; main contract holdings of cotton yarn: 22,263 hands, down 13 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 63 sheets, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 20,760 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 21,880 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count): 23,749 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. [2] Spot Market - The relevant price data in the futures market also reflects the spot market situation to some extent, including the price changes of domestic and imported cotton and cotton yarn. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area in 2025 is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B): 5,426 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 857,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; cotton import volume in the current month: 50,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume in the current month: 110,000 tons, unchanged; import cotton profit: 868 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 2.1898 million tons, down 640,000 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 27.67 days, down 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days: 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; cloth output in the current month: 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; yarn output in the current month: 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 1,516,175,900 US dollars, down 10,495,500 US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 1,160,400,900 US dollars, down 44,419,800 US dollars. [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton: 11.34%, up 0.26%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton: 11.35%, up 0.24%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.38%, up 0.15%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.68%, down 0.06%. [2] Industry News - China's 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. As of the week ending August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 54%, compared with 55% in the previous week and 40% in the same period last year. On Monday, the ICE December cotton contract closed down 0.91%. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract closed down 0.11%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.15%. [2]