瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, demand will gradually increase, and with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME is 1,995 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [3] - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 85,396 lots, down 1,333 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,540 lots, up 1,253 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 58,201 tons, down 747 tons [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,690 tons, down 1,154 tons; the LME lead inventory is 273,050 tons, down 6,550 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,990 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 33.79 US dollars/ton, up 4.59 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged [3] - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.27%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.66%, up 4.41 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 37,500 tons, up 2,200 tons [3] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 70 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of the waste battery market is 10,132.14 yuan/ton, up 1.78 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] - The Shenwan Industry Index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells is 2,038.33 points, up 37.47 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US plans to include copper and potash in the list of critical minerals [3] - Intel says the Trump administration's shareholding poses a risk to the business, and the government's shareholding may rise to 15%. Trump says he will continue to reach similar deals [3] - Fed's Logan says there is still room to lower bank system reserves, and the standing repurchase facility may be re - enabled in September [3] - Powell "joins" the dovish camp, opening the door for the Fed to cut interest rates in September [3] - White House National Economic Council Director Hasset says it is appropriate for the Fed to consider an interest rate cut [3] - ECB President Lagarde says the European economy is resilient but not prosperous, and tariffs may have little impact on European GDP [3] 3.7 View Summary - The primary lead smelters are relatively strong, and their by - product revenues are stable. However, with the continuous fluctuation of lead prices, the production decisions of some primary lead smelters have been adjusted, and the output of primary lead still fluctuates slightly [3] - The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences. The supply of waste battery raw materials is tight, and smelters lack confidence. The overall supply side is tight [3] - The sewage inspection in Anhui has a marginal impact on local recycled lead production, increasing the uncertainty of recycled lead supply [3] - The operating rate of recycled lead decreases slightly and remains at a relatively low level. The profits of recycled enterprises have not improved, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [3] - Foreign inventories are rising, domestic inventories are falling, and overall inventories are rising. Demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction, but it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices [3]