瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Although the large出栏 pressure in August restrains the performance of the spot price, the state's reserve purchase boosts market confidence, and the approaching school - opening brings expectations of improved demand. It is expected that the short - term hog futures price will fluctuate strongly within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the 出栏 rhythm and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 13,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 70,270 lots, up 241 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots, down 430 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,252 lots, down 923 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The hog price in Henan Zhumadian is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 15,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main hog basis is - 260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0430,000 heads, up 10,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly year - on - year CPI is 0%, down 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,367.75 yuan/ton, down 0.68 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index is 900.89, down 1.93. The monthly output of feed is 29,377,000 tons, up 1,756,000 tons; the weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,627 yuan/head, down 11 yuan. The weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 151.8 yuan/head, up 5.25 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is 33.95 yuan/head, up 5.1 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged. The weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,0060,000 heads, down 2100,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 470.76 billion yuan, up 12.94 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 26, 2025, the daily hog 出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 276,484 heads, up 2.41% from the previous day. On Tuesday, the hog 2511 contract closed down 0.47%. In August, the 出栏 plan of the breeding end increased month - on - month, and the market supply was loose. The current price difference between fat and lean hogs widened, providing conditions for later 压栏 [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The state will carry out central pork reserve purchases in the near future, boosting market confidence. With sufficient hog supply, the demand in some areas has recovered, and the slaughterhouse's operating rate has rebounded moderately. It is expected that the demand will improve after the start of school and the upcoming double - festival stocking. Overall, although the large 出栏 pressure in August restrains the spot price, the reserve purchase and the expected improvement in demand will make the short - term hog futures price oscillate strongly within a range [2]. 3.8 Key Concerns - There is no news today. It is necessary to pay attention to the 出栏 rhythm and downstream demand [2].