瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract declined with decreasing positions. Macroscopically, Zheng Shanjie encouraged enterprises to boost confidence, seize opportunities, and utilize both domestic and international markets and resources to contribute to expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand during the off - season, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. Overall, market sentiment cooled, the mainstream positions significantly reduced long positions, and futures prices were under pressure. The short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA tested the 0 - axis pressure, and the red bars shrank. The operation suggestion is short - term trading with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,113.00 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the position volume was 1,308,206 lots, down 39,624 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 112,560 lots, down 8,361 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 72 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 162,206 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 254 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,320.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,405 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,270.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 207.00 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 774.00 yuan/wet ton, down 7.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,020.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.452 million tons, up 259,300 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 393,800 tons, up 3,300 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.0969 million tons, down 900 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1609 million tons, up 35,700 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.27%, up 0.03%. The rebar output of sample steel mills was 2.1465 million tons, down 58,000 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 47.05%, down 1.28%. The rebar inventory in sample steel mills was 1.7453 million tons, up 22,700 tons; the social rebar inventory in 35 cities was 4.3251 million tons, up 175,800 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, down 1.05%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 16.58 million tons, up 1.4 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.60%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 12.00%, down 0.80%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 3.20%, down 1.40%. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing was 405.36 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In mid - August, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 2.115 million tons, a 2.0% increase from the previous period; the inventory of steel products was 15.67 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous ten - day period. Zheng Shanjie chaired a symposium to solicit opinions and suggestions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, and encouraged enterprises to be confident and competitive [2]