瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's move to remove Fed Governor Cook and potential tariff plans have boosted market risk aversion, causing a short - term spike in London spot gold prices. The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver opened higher, but the upward momentum of Shanghai silver was insufficient. - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has slightly increased, and the market has fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year. However, the upward momentum on the market has weakened, and some long - position funds have flowed out, possibly due to the less - than - expected rise in rate - cut expectations after the weekend meeting. - The mid - term logic of rate cuts is bullish for gold and silver prices, but in the short term, the lack of major macro - catalysts may lead to range - bound trading. It is recommended to lightly build positions after a pullback, and short - term long - position holders should be aware of pullback risks. Specific price ranges are provided for different contracts and external markets [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price: 781.12 yuan/gram, up 1.94; Shanghai silver main contract closing price: 9354 yuan/kilogram, down 40. - Shanghai gold main contract open interest: 174,588 lots, down 5,563; Shanghai silver main contract open interest: 303,822 lots, down 18,952. - Net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold main contract: 161,166 lots, up 1,140; net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver main contract: 109,203 lots, down 9,168. - Gold warehouse receipts: 37,503 kilograms, down 12; silver warehouse receipts: 1,127,333 kilograms, up 13,692 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price: 776.86 yuan/gram, up 1.14; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price: 9319 yuan/kilogram, down 17. - Shanghai gold main contract basis: - 4.26 yuan/gram, down 0.8; Shanghai silver main contract basis: - 35 yuan/kilogram, up 23 [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings: 958.49 tons, up 1.72; silver ETF holdings: 15,288.82 tons, unchanged. - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly): 212,590 contracts, down 16,895; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly): 46,549 contracts, up 2,281. - Quarterly total gold supply: 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; annual total silver supply: 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. - Quarterly total gold demand: 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; annual global total silver demand: 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 3.4 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold: 8.48%, up 0.17; 40 - day historical volatility of gold: 10.6%, up 0.14. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold: 16.29%, up 0.02; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold: 16.29%, up 0.02 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump removed Fed Governor Cook due to alleged dishonesty and potential criminal behavior. - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products. - Major investment banks expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, and some banks expect additional cuts in December. - Japan Post will temporarily stop receiving some mail to the US due to new tariff exemption rules [2].