镍与不锈钢周报：驱动仍不足-20250826

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Weekly Report: Still Lack of Drivers [1] - Report Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - For electrolytic nickel, the strategy is to wait and see, with an expected price range of 116,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Given high pure nickel production, loose supply - demand, and fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within the range [3][89]. - For stainless steel, the strategy is also to wait and see, with an expected price range of 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Despite production recovery, average demand, and existing inventory pressure, strong cost support and the "anti - involution" sentiment suggest that stainless steel prices will fluctuate within the range [4][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 0.89%. Trading volume decreased to 407,500 lots (- 80,800), and open interest increased to 111,400 lots (+ 2,100). LME nickel fell 0.40% weekly, with trading volume rising to 29,200 lots (+ 800) [10]. - The basis was at a premium of 940 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - Last week, prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [18]. - In June, Philippine nickel ore exports increased. In July, China's nickel ore imports reached 5.01 million tons, up 15.2% month - on - month and 43.6% year - on - year [22]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 306,300 tons, and port inventories rose by 440,000 wet tons [24]. 3.2.2 Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 4.5 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron was flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel narrowed [30]. - In July, China's nickel pig iron imports were 836,000 tons, down 19.7% month - on - month but up 1.8% year - on - year. August imports are expected to be flat [33]. - Nickel pig iron producers' losses widened, but the operating rate increased. In August, domestic production and operating rates declined, while those in Indonesia slightly increased. Nickel pig iron inventories slightly decreased [35][39][43]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel - In August, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased. The profitability of electrolytic nickel exports decreased. In July, both imports and exports of electrolytic nickel increased [47][51][54]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Stainless Steel - In August, stainless steel production schedules increased, including those for 300 - series stainless steel. In July, exports rose 6.7% month - on - month and 1.4% year - on - year, while imports fell 33.3% month - on - month and 39.0% year - on - year. August imports and exports are expected to decline [59][63]. 3.3.2 New Energy - The price of pure nickel fell, while that of nickel sulfate rose, widening the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel. The proportion of pure nickel used in nickel sulfate production was minimal [68]. - In August, production schedules for ternary precursors and materials increased, while that for nickel sulfate decreased [72][74]. - In July, new energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, down 2.0% month - on - month but up 26.3% year - on - year, and sales were 1.262 million units, down 5.1% month - on - month but up 27.4% year - on - year [80]. 3.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories decreased. Shanghai Free Trade Zone nickel inventories were flat, and the six - region social total inventory decreased by 1,019 tons [81][85]. 3.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally sourced nickel sulfate and nickel matte increased, while that from externally sourced MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - matte integrated production [88]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Market - Last week, stainless steel futures fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 2.04%. The basis widened to 915 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 619,000 lots (- 178,900), and open interest was 144,500 lots (+ 10,200) [92]. - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose, providing strong cost support. Losses for 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel widened, while those for 400 - series stainless steel narrowed [95][100]. - Domestic stainless steel social inventories increased. 200 - series inventories decreased, while 300 - series and 400 - series inventories increased [113].