青鸟消防（002960）：传统业务价格压力仍存，多领域拓宽消防边界

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.15 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5.04% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 159 million yuan, down 16.06% year-on-year [7][8] - The domestic traditional fire protection demand is under pressure, while industrial and overseas businesses have shown growth [9] - The company is expected to see a turnaround in its traditional fire protection business due to the clearance of old inventory and the implementation of new national standards [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023A to 2027E shows a slight decline in 2024, with expected revenues of 4.93 billion yuan in 2024 and growth to 5.97 billion yuan by 2027 [6][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to recover from 353 million yuan in 2024 to 589 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 16.10% in 2025 and 14.96% in 2027 [6][10] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.49 yuan in 2024 to 0.80 yuan in 2027 [6][10] Business Segment Analysis - The revenue from fire automatic alarm and emergency evacuation systems decreased by 7.29% and 3.08% respectively, while industrial fire protection and extinguishing services saw increases of 3.37% and 8.60% [7][9] - Overseas revenue reached 392 million yuan, up 4.83%, with significant growth in gas detection and industrial fire protection segments [7][9] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 35.60%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points year-on-year, but the company managed to maintain a gross margin of 45.65% for fire automatic alarms [7][9] - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a slight decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [7][9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the clearance of old inventory and the implementation of new standards, which may lead to a recovery in the traditional fire alarm market [9] - The company is diversifying into industrial fire protection and fire service sectors, with promising growth in data center and energy storage fire protection services [9]